Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago -132 odds (May 15th 2013)
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The Chicago Cubs have a big edge on the mound Wednesday with Jeff Samardzija over Jon Garland. I’ll back the Cubs at home at an excellent price as a result.
Samardzija is one of the best young starters in the game. He has posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.253 WHIP with 57 strikeouts over 48 2/3 innings in eight starts in 2013. He was the team’s opening day starter for good reason.
Jon Garland is washed up and far past his prime. The veteran right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in his last three.
The Rockies are 16-36 in their last 52 games as an underdog. Colorado is 0-8 in its last 8 games following a win. The Cubs are 4-0 in Samardzija’s last 4 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Cubs Wednesday.
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Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Prediction: San Diego +131 odds (May 2nd 2013)
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The Padres ran into a hot pitcher (at least for one game) in Scott Feldman last night, as he held them to three hits and struck out 12 over the course of a complete game victory. I don’t expect a repeat performance on Thursday, as the Cubs turn to Travis Wood.
Wood has been solid in the early going this season, but as far as I’m concerned he’s been pitching over his head, and we should see some regression moving forward. Don’t miss out on all of Sean Murphy’s expert MLB predictions for May 2nd 2013 at Touthouse.com. Purchase a premium package today!
Note that Wood has posted ERAs north of four in each of the last two seasons. He checks into Thursday’s start sporting an excellent 2.25 ERA. Note that he faced the Padres right here at Wrigley Field last season and gave up seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings of work.
San Diego will counter with Eric Stults. The journeyman left-hander has struggled over his last two starts, both coming against the Giants. He has proven he can win on the road, however, guiding the Padres to victories in New York (against the Mets) and Los Angeles (against the Dodgers) this season. He’s struck out 13 while walking only three in 18 innings of work away from home.
Bouncing back from an ugly loss often isn’t as difficult to do in baseball as it is in some of the other sports. The season is a long grind, and there will be games where the offense simply can’t get going – just as we saw from the Pads’ last night. That poor performance doesn’t change the fact that San Diego has been playing well lately, and I look for it to foil Chicago’s chances of picking up a series win on Thursday afternoon. Take San Diego (1*).
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Prediction: Chicago Cubs +105 odds (April 20th 2013)
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The Brewers are a hot team that has won five straight games, but I think that has led to them being over-priced against the Cubs here today. They will be starting Hiram Burgos on the hill today, who has a great track record in the minor leagues but a year ago was throwing in single A ball. Even though the Cubs aren’t great offensively, they are a big jump from the competition Burgos has been facing.
Edwin Jackson was touched up the first time he faced Milwaukee this year for five runs on eight hits and five walks. That should increase his focus to make amends for that performance. He actually has done well against the Brewers in the past, and last year threw 15 innings against them while giving up just a single run.
The Cubs are scoring only 3.6 runs per game, but they are putting up 4.5 against right-handed starters. This is a game where Chicago shows some value and is worth a look as a small dog. Did you enjoy this prediction on the Cubs vs. Brewers matchup? Get all of Jimmy’s premium pick at Touthouse.com today
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB Prediction: Pittsburgh -132 odds (April 3rd 2013)
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Free MLB Prediction from Doc’s Sports Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm ET) The Chicago Cubs have made some big strides as an organization since Theo Epstein took over the reins about a year and a half ago. They have improved their once barren minor league system, brought along some promising major leaguers and are laying the foundation for the future of a winning ballclub. For 2013, however, this Cubs team still isn’t very good. They have a few nice pieces in the everyday lineup (Castro, Rizzo, Soriano), but there are still gaping holes and the pitching staff is a mess. Edwin Jackson was signed in the offseason and will make his Cubs debut tonight. He’s been an up and down pitcher for his entire career, but he’s mostly played on winning teams so it’s hard to say what he’ll be like on this squad. I don’t expect much from the right-hander who owns a career 4.40 ERA. He’ll face the Pittsburgh Pirates in this one. The Pirates have been getting incrementally better over the last few seasons and they finally have a puncher’s chance of making a run at the playoffs. They didn’t make a ton of moves in the offseason, but most of their key players are entering their primes so this team should improve regardless. Wandy Rodriguez goes today for the Pirates and he should be in good form after throwing a couple of nice games in the WBC tournament. The Cubs also struggle mightily against left-handers and Rodriguez has owned them in his career. The line on this game is too low for a Pirates team that plays well at home. Take Pittsburgh in this one.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates +110
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are trying to avoid finishing with a losing record for a 20th straight season. At 73-72 on the year, they have an excellent chance of doing so with only two weeks remaining.
I know the Pirates have struggled of late, but the fact of the matter is that they are only three games back of the final wild-card spot in the National League. This team will be motivated to make one final push.
Kevin Correia has been respectable this season, going 10-9 with a 4.29 ERA. He has posted a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts, and I look for him to shut down this weak Cubs’ line-up tonight. Chicago starter Travis Wood is 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 11 home starts this season.
The Pirates are 8-1 in Correia’s last 9 starts vs. National League Central opponents. The Cubs are 2-10 in Wood’s last 12 starts overall, including 0-6 in his last 6 home starts. Bet the Pirates Monday.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Chicago Cubs +113 Betting Line (August 29th 2012)
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The Cubs, who are 32-31 at home, are showing value in the underdog role with Jeff Samardzija on the hill against a Milwaukee club that is 23-39 on the road.
Samardzija has been rock solid at Wrigley all season. He’s 4-3 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.28 in 11 home starts. The Cubs are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, 5-2 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus the National League Central.
Milwaukee’s Michael Fiers is not in good form. He’s 1-2 with an ERA of 9.88 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 1-3 in his last 4 road starts, 5-18 in their last 23 road games versus a right-handed starter and 8-20 in their last 28 road games overall. Take the Cubs.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -120
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The Reds are showing value on the run line considering how poorly Chicago’s Volstad has pitched. He’s 0-9 with a 6.96 ERA on the season. Dating back to last season, he is just 1-13 on the money line in his last 14 starts. 12 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more. He is 0-6 on the money line in road starts during this span, and all 6 of those have come by at least 2 runs.
The Reds have won 4 of Latos’ last 5 starts with each of those 4 victories coming by 2 runs or more. We’ll bet the Reds on the run line.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – August 3rd 2012
Betting Line: Dodgers -155 / Cubs +145
Pick: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs are showing excellent value Friday. Jeff Samardzija is killing opponents of late. The right-hander sports a 7-8 record with a 4.19 ERA on the season with 121 strikeouts in 120 1/3 innings.
Samardzija is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts, giving up three earned runs over 19 innings. He’s up against Chad Billingsley, who is 6-9 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 20 starts. Billingsley is 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.560 WHIP in nine home starts in 2012.
The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Chicago is 4-1 in Samardzija’s last 5 starts. The Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Los Angeles is 1-7 in its last 8 home games. Bet the Cubs Friday.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Betting Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates -130 odds (August 1st 2012)
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After getting thumped on Monday, the Pirates responded with a win last night behind another strong pitching performance from A.J. Burnett. Despite going 10-4 over their last 14 games, they have actually lost ground to the Reds in the National League Central because they are even hotter. Pittsburgh is three games back of Cincinnati and this is an important series finale as the Pirates have three games on deck against the Reds. The Pirates are 17-6 in their last 23 games as favorites between -110 and -150.
The Cubs exploded for 14 runs Monday but were shutout last night as the inconsistent offense remains the big issue. Chicago is hitting only .204 over its last 10 games and it has scored three runs or fewer in six of those. Chicago still does possess a winning record at home as it has been playing a lot better but the matchup is not in its favor today and we are catching a good price going the other way. The Cubs are 6-16 in their last 22 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.
Ever since a bad start in Philadelphia in late June, Jeff Karstens has been very solid as he has tossed three quality outings over his last five starts, posting a 2.65 ERA over that stretch. He is 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA in his last five starts against the Cubs and while his pitching on the road this season has been less than stellar, pitching here can revive him. He has a 2.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts at Wrigley Field and the Pirates are 4-1 in Karstens’ last five starts as a favorite.
The Cubs pitching has been some of the worst in baseball and with the departure of Ryan Dempster, it is only going downhill. Travis Wood takes the hill and it has been a disappointing season, his first with the Cubs. He was actually throwing very well prior to the All-Star break as he had a 3.05 ERA but he has blown up since then, posting a 12.64 ERA in three starts since then. He has allowed eight runs in each of his last two home starts and the Cubs are 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog between +110 and +150. (903) Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -140 (July 23rd 2012)
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The Pirates are showing value at home, where they are 32-14, against a Chicago club that is 14-35 on the road. The Pirates are 16-5 in their last 21 overall, 22-4 in their last 26 games as a favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 versus the Cubs.
Chicago’s Samardzija has really struggled on the road, as evidenced by his 5.40 ERA away from Wrigley. The Cubs are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Pittsburgh’s Bedard, meanwhile, has been solid at home (2.95 ERA). He held the Cubs scoreless in 6 innings of work while giving up only 2 hits in a 10-4 victory at home earlier this season. Take Pittsburgh.
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