St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: St. Louis -130 betting line (September 9th 2014)
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The St. Louis Cardinals are surging, winners of nine of their last 10. They defeated Cincinnati by a score of 5-0 in the series opener at Great American ballpark on Monday, and they are the favorite in Game 2 tonight. This looks like another favorable spot for the visitors, and the price seems more than fair.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching – The Reds will send Mike Leake to the mound, and he’s coming off a terrible outing, matching career highs surrendering seven runs and three homers in a no decision versus Baltimore. His numbers versus the Cardinals leave little reason to be optimistic here tonight, as he’s 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career home starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha, who was successful in his return, allowing one run on three hits over three innings in a no-decision at Milwaukee last week.
2. Cardinals vs. Leake – Matt Holliday and Matt Adams are both hitting .400 versus Leake in their respective careers, and each has three doubles and a home run against him.
3. X-Factor – Yadier Molina came off the DL on August 29, and the Cardinals have since won 9-of-11 games with the veteran in the lineup.
Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals (Free)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
MLB Prediction: Miami +109 odds (July 31st 2014)
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Play On: Miami +109 (Cueto/Koehler) Listed The Cincinnati Red travel to Miami to take on the Marlins on Thursday night. Both teams have identical 53-54 overall records on the season. Miami is 45-27 last 3 years at home when the total is 7 or less including 13-5 this season. Miami has won 6 of their last 7 games overall. Cincinnati is scoring only 1.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have an overall team batting average of only .191. Miami has allowed only 2.4 runs per game their past seven games overall where teams are batting a combined .218. Tom Koehler gets the start for Miami where he is 4-3 with a 2.75 ERA at home this year. Cueto has a 5.27 ERA in his five starts vs Miami in his career. We’ll recommend a small play on Miami tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky Rocketman Sports has a TOP 4* MLB BEST BET going on Thursday night! Rocketman is on a MASSIVE 84-58 59% MLB run his last 142 MLB picks! Don’t miss out on this easy winner and build that bankroll for football!
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Pittsburgh +110 odds (July 11th 2014)
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I’m recommending a play on the Pirates on Friday night. Pittsburgh avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals when they whipped the Redbirds last night. Pittsburgh took on a Cardinal team dealing with another huge injury, this time to Yadier Molina, who is expected to miss at least 8 weeks of action. The Bucs roll into Cincinnati to face a Reds’ team that is dealing with injuries of their own. Joey Votto was already on the DL and now Brandon Phillips joins him after suffering torn ligaments in his left thumb on Wednesday night. Not having Phillips presents not only a hole in the infield, but also in the middle of the lineup where he played such a big part in the Reds’ attack. Jeff Locke will start on the mound for Pittsburgh and he has been outstanding since being called-up on June 8, posting a 2.03 ERA in six outings. While Mat Latos provides strong pitching for the Reds, I believe this one will be won by a Bucs’ team that’s simply much healthier at the plate. The Pirates are on a 5-0 run when Locke takes the mound and they’re 11-4 in their last 15 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Reds are 3-8 in their last 11 against starting pitchers with a WHIP under 1.15. I’m recommending the Pirates on Friday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres +120 odds (July 2nd 2014)
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The Padres are showing solid value as a decent priced home underdog against the Reds. San Diego comes in with some momentum off three straight wins, including a convincing 8-2 victory over the Reds last night. I like their chances of keeping it going, as this will be the final game of a 10-game road trip for Cincinnati, which should have the Reds looking forward to returning home for the holiday weekend. Not to mention they get a much-needed day off tomorrow.
San Diego will be starting Tyson Ross, who has a strong 2.39 ERA and 1.028 WHIP at home this season. The Reds counter with ace Johnny Cueto, who is only slightly better with a 2.20 ERA and 0.942 WHIP on the road. As you might expect, tonight’s total has been set at 6.5. This is important to note, as the Reds are just 4-10 in their last 14 road games with a total set at 6.5 or lower and 1-5 in Cueto’s last 6 road starts with a total set at 6.5 or lower.
Solid system in play to fade the Reds. Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL) are just 20-32 over the last 5 seasons. That’s a 62% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!
MLB Predictions: June 29th 2014
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Prediction: Cincinnati Reds +109
I like the Reds here given Homer Bailey’s success in recent years against the Giants. He threw a perfect game against them just last year, but over his last 4 starts he has held them in check and overall he has held their hitters to a .535 OPS. He sports a 2.59 ERA during day games this year and he gets to go up against a struggling offense as the Giants are averaging less than 3 runs over their last 10 games. Tim Hudson is having a great year with an ERA under 3, but there are some red flags when you consider that he just allowed 11 ER in 10 and a third innings vs. two questionable hitting teams in the White Sox and the Padres. The Reds have dominated this match up winning 10 of 11 in San Francisco and I think they go for the sweep on Sunday. -Freddy Wills
Prediction: Detroit Tigers -125
On Sunday the free MLB System play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 217 at 2:10 eastern. Detroit came from behind on Saturday to beat Houston and will look to take the rubber game in the series. The Tigers are 13-4 with a total between 8 and 8.5 and they are averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. In contrast Houston has struggled at the plate, averaging 2.5 runs the past week. The Astros have lost 5 of 6 here vs Detroit. They have S. Feldman on the mound. However he has a 4.89 home era and a 8.73 era vs Detroit. D. Smyly for the Tigers has been hot of late with a 1.42 era in his last 3 starts. To tie a nice system from the database in this one. We note that certain road favorites, like Detroit that are off a 1 run road favored win and scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits are 15-5 vs an opponent of a home dog loss, if both teams had no errors. Look for Detroit to take the finale. On Sunday its the ESPN Total of the Month from a Powerful never lost totals system. There is also a Tripe Perfect Afternoon totals play from a system that beats the line by 3 runs. In World cup action its 24-1 Power Indicator. Saturday card sweeps at 5-0. Jump on and end the week big. For the free MLB Play take Detroit. -Rob Vinciletti
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Cincinnati +107 odds (June 27th 2014)
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Any time you can get Johnny Cueto as an underdog, you should look to take advantage. This guy has been one of the most underrated starters in the game over the past couple of years, and he isn’t getting the respect he deserves tonight, either.
Cueto went 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 2011, 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA in 2012, and 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 2013. He is now 7-5 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in 2013. Cueto has also gone 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in five career starts against San Francisco.
Madison Bumgarner is certainly a quality starter, but he has struggled at home this year. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven starts at AT&T Park in 2014. Bumgarner is also 2-3 with a 4.63 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati.
The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games as a road underdog. Cincinnati is 10-3 in its last 13 road games overall. The Reds are 10-2 in Cueto’s last 12 starts vs. NL West opponents. The Giants are 1-6 in their last seven home games. San Francisco is 0-5 in its last five vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Giants are 2-8 in Bumgarner’s last 10 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Bet the Reds Friday.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants -114 betting line (June 26th 2014)
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San Francisco is showing excellent value as a small home favorite. The Giants had really been struggling to get anything going prior to last night’s win over the Padres, where Tim Lincecum threw his second no-hitter. That’s just the emotional lift San Francisco needed.
It’s been a rough last three starts for San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong, but he comes in with a 3.33 ERA and 1.130 WHIP at home. I’ll take my chances on Vogelsong out dueling the Reds Mike Leake, who hasn’t been at his best on the road and comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.528 WHIP over his last 3 starts. It’s also worth mentioning that Vogelsong held Cincinnati to just 2 runs on 7 hits with 9 strikeouts back on 6/4, while Leake gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in a loss to the Giants on 6/5.
San Francisco is 20-7 in Vogelsong’s last 27 starts after allowing 2 runs or less and 9-2 in his last 11 starts against the NL Central.
Home teams after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts are 66-34 since 1997. That’s a 66% system in favor of the Giants. Take San Francisco!
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Betting Pick: Cincinnati -117 betting line (June 11th 2014)
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After dropping the first two games of this series to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I look for the Cincinnati Reds to come out highly motivated tonight to get a victory in Game 3. I really like their chances of getting back in the win column with their ace on the mound.
Johnny Cueto has been one of the most underrated starters in the game over the last few seasons. The right-hander went 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 2011, 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA in 2012, and 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA in an injury-shortened 2013 season.
Cueto has carried over his success into 2014, going 5-5 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in 13 starts. He is also 3-3 with a 1.87 ERA and 0.717 WHIP in seven home starts this season, and he has posted a 3.19 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in seven career starts against Los Angeles.
The Reds are 68-26 in their last 94 after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Cincinnati is 9-2 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Reds are 11-0 in Cueto’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 22-6 in Cueto’s last 28 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Reds Wednesday.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Reds -105 betting line (June 9th 2014)
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The Cincinnati Reds get the call as a small home favorite over the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday. The Dodgers are only hitting .214 and scoring 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and they’ll have to deal with southpaw Tony Cingrani tonight.
Cingrani hasn’t gotten off to the best start this season, going 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA, but he is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in five home starts. Also, the left-hander went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP as a rookie last year, so he’s still one of the best young starters in the game. Cingrani pitched seven shutout innings while striking out 11 in his lone career start against Los Angeles on July 28 last season.
Dan Haren comes in overvalued at 5-4 with a 3.50 ERA this season. The right-hander had gone 12-13 with a 4.33 ERA with the Angels in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.67 ERA with the Nationals in 2013. He has overachieved thus far in 2014, while Cingrani has underachieved. Haren is 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA in seven career starts against Cincinnati.
Haren is 1-10 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. The Dodgers are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Los Angeles is 0-5 in Haren’s last five starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 67-31 in their last 98 when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Reds Monday.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Betting Pick: Reds -139 odds (June 6th 2014)
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Ryan has posted a 21-11 mark and making an impressive 11.43 units/unit wagered. In May he won his NL Total of the Month (ARZ/SD) that went over in the 2nd inning w/ARZ leading 10-0! Also, won Run Line Game of the Month +135 CLV 5-1 over SD May 30. So, get on board tonight for his NL Game of the Week!
5* graded play on the Cincinnati Reds as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in NL action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. The Phillies won 2-of-3 in aseries against the Reds in mid-Mat, but they did not face Cueto, who has been about as dominant a starter as there has been in the NL this season. In addition to ERA, Cueto is also leading the National League in opponents’ batting average (.151) and complete games (tied with three). He’s second in innings pitched (91) and strikeouts (92). He also hasn’t given up a homer in 32 innings, a stretch that dates back to May 9 when Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki went yard. He is now facing an anemic Phillies offense that ranks 24th in RPG, 30th in run differential, 24th in team batting average, and 29th in RLISP. Only Chase Utley resembles a true MLB hitter and I strongly believe that Cueto will dominate the Phillies tonight. Phillies starter Cole Hamels has seen better days then what he has been serving of this season. Moreover, he is a money burning 5-15 (-16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Cueto is a solid money making 31-10 (+15.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse since 1997. Take the Reds. Don’t miss out on more MLB picks from our handicappers on our homepage at Touthouse.com