Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Betting Prediction: Angels +113 odds (April 4th 2013)
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The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, I’m going off raw stats and value here and not public’s or the media’s perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.

Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and he’s a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS.

Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. He’s got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. I’m not suggesting he won’t give up a lot of HR’s again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blanton’s abilities which is throwing Angels +113 (1* FREE PLAY)
The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, I’m going off raw stats and value here and not public’s or the media’s perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.

Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and he’s a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS. If you find this Angels vs. Reds MLB prediction useful, be sure to check out Freddy’s premium MLB baseball picks at Touthouse.com

Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. He’s got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. I’m not suggesting he won’t give up a lot of HR’s again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blanton’s abilities which is throwing strikes and getting batters to miss.

Both pitchers will rely on not giving up HR’s and I think they will both be successful today so that turns the game into small ball and Blanton ranked 22nd best in contract rate while Arroyo was 8th worst allowing 85% of his pitches to be hit. He gave up 30 hits and a .333 average in sprint training and now he goes up against a talented line up. I expect him to have runners on base all day long. Can he win? Absolutely, but I’ll fade a pitcher as a favorite that will put more guys on base than his opponent.

MLB Baseball Picks: August 21st 2012
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia -154 odds
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With Monday’s victory, the Phillies have won 16 of 19 versus Cincinnati, including 10 of 11 at home. Their dominance should continue with the Reds bringing Homer Bailey to the hill. The Phillies are 5-0 lifetime against Bailey, winning those contests by an average of 4.0 runs while Bailey has posted a 5.88 ERA.

Philly’s Cliff Lee, meanwhile, is 6-2 (7-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.17 in 10 career starts versus the Reds. He is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them and didn’t allow a single run in 2 of those.

The Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog while the Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Take Philadelphia.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 -120
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The Reds are showing value on the run line considering how poorly Chicago’s Volstad has pitched. He’s 0-9 with a 6.96 ERA on the season. Dating back to last season, he is just 1-13 on the money line in his last 14 starts. 12 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more. He is 0-6 on the money line in road starts during this span, and all 6 of those have come by at least 2 runs.

The Reds have won 4 of Latos’ last 5 starts with each of those 4 victories coming by 2 runs or more. We’ll bet the Reds on the run line.

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Just disgusting! The Angels blew an 8-0 lead to cost us Saturday. That’s the kind of week it’s been on the bases. Jimmy is going to continue to do the same things that made him the 2007 MLB World Champ ($1,000/game bettors profited $50,050) and the No. 11 Ranked MLB Capper last season ($1,000/game bettors banked 13,960). Sunday’s gem is backed by a PERFECT 43-0 ANGLE that will have you betting with EXTREME confidence.

MLB Betting Predictions: July 30th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -144
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The red-hot Reds have won 10 in a row, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against San Diego, a club they have defeated 8 times in the past 11 meetings.

Cincy’s Leake has pitched well enough to keep the team in games this season. The Reds are 4-1 in his last 5 starts, 5-2 in his last 7 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Volquez has been solid for San Diego, but he often doesn’t receive the benefit of good run support. The Padres are 2-5 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. We’ll take the Reds.

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Baseball Picks: July 29th 2012
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -159
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The Reds, who have won eight in a row on the road, get the call as our free play Sunday. They take on a Colorado club that has dropped 32 of its last 45 overall and 16 of its last 21 at home.

The Reds have the edge on the mound with Latos. They have won nine of his last 12 starts. He enters in top form, having allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

Sanchez, now with the Rockies, has had a terrible season. The southpaw has an ERA of 8.00 on the year. He’s 0-6 on the money line in his last six starts and has given up five earned runs or more in four of his last five starts. Take Cincinnati.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +106 odds (July 14th 2012)
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St. Louis stranded 11 runners yesterday, while hitting into 2 double-plays, and committed a fatal Error to give away the game to Cincinnati. The Cardinals are now 2 1/2 GB both NL Central 1st place teams, the Reds and Pirates. St. Louis wants their top spot back. Today, 1B, Lance Berkman is expected to be activated after injuring his knee and being out since May 19th. The powerful lineup ranks 4th in RPG with 4.93, 2nd in Team BA at .275, and 11th in HRs with 96 round-trippers. The team won 6 of 8 going into All-Star break. Today, Kyle Lohse gets the start. The RH is 9-2 with a 2.79 ERA on the season, including a road mark of 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA, and is 1-0 vs. Cincinnati this season. The Reds have won 4 in a row but three of the games were against the sad-sack Padres and it took a Cardinals mistake-riddled game to win yesterday. Outside of Joey Votto, consistency is an issue for the offense. Mike Leake gets the nod here. The RH is 3-6 with a 4.01 record on the season, going 1-3 with a 5.15 mark at home and lost his only starts vs. St. Louis. In his career, Leake is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.32 vs. the Cards. St Louis is 5-2 their L7 games played on the road, 10-4 their L14 games following a loss, and 4-1 in Lohses L5 starts against the Reds. Take St. Louis. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico

Baseball Picks: July 1st 2012
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Pick: San Francisco Giants -144
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The Giants have lost back-to-back games since winning four in a row to start the week, but I like them to get back in the win column here with Vogelsong on the mound. The Giants are 9-1 in his last 10 starts, including 6-0 at home during this stretch. Also, he has given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts.

The Reds haven’t received the same kind of consistency from Arroyo. They have dropped four of his last six starts overall and four of his last five on the road. He has allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last nine outings.

The Giants are 27-10 in their last 37 games as a home favorite and 18-4 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take San Francisco.

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Baseball Picks: June 20th 2012
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians -123
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The Cleveland Indians are showing solid value Wednesday as a small home favorite against the Cincinnati Reds. The Indians will be going for the series sweep, and they’ll be sending their best starter to the mound in Justin Masterson tonight.

Masterson got off to a slow start this season, but he’s really kicked it in gear of late. He has allowed just one earned run over 14 innings in his last two starts. Masterson has been at his best at home, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in nine home outings in 2012.

Bronson Arroyo has posted a 3.84 ERA in 13 starts this season, a 3.91 ERA in seven home starts, and a 4.66 ERA over his last three. Arroyo has allowed 16 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Cleveland, while Masterson allowed just one earned runs over 8 innings in his last start against Cincinnati.

The Reds are 17-35 in their last 52 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 0-4 in Arroyo’s last 4 starts vs. American League Central foes. The Indians are 26-12 in their last 38 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Cleveland is 6-0 in their last 6 home meetings with Cincinnati. Bet the Indians Wednesday.

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MLB Baseball Predictions: June 5th 2012
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -150
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Tuesday’s free play goes on the Reds due to Homer Bailey’s dominance of the Pirates. He is 6-0 (8-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.79 in 8 career starts versus Pittsburgh. Those starts have been won by a whopping 4.6 runs per game.

Pittsburgh’s A.J. Burnett is 0-3 (1-3 on the ML) in 4 career starts in Cincinnati. He has been lit up for at least 5 runs in each of those 3 losing decisions.

Both pitchers enter in good form but Burnett’s road woes can’t be overlooked. He’s 1-2 with an ERA of 9.82 outside Pittsburgh this year. Burnett’s teams are 8-28 in his last 36 starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997. We’ll take the Reds.

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New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds +138 odds (May 19th 2012)
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5* graded play on the Reds as they take on the NY Yankees set to start at 1:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Reds will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-12 for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play on any team that is a very bad NL offensive team scoring fewer than 3.8 runs per game and is now facing a team with a very good bullpen posting an ERA <=3.33 and after two straight losses by four runs or more. Reds are a solid 33-19 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. Yankees have never faced Homer Bailey and he is coming off a strong start allowing just one earned run in 6 ? innings of work in a 3-1 win at Atlanta. Nova struggled big time in his last start and his command has been quite poor – not something corrected in five days of bullpen sessions. Take the Reds.