Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
Game 5 Betting Pick: Under 185.5 odds (May 30th 2013)
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In their only blowout win over the Pacers the Heat dominated defensively. It’s obvious that Indiana has found a way to slow down Miami’s stout offense but it is the Miami defense that will make the difference in controlling the pace of this game. Indiana has held opponents to 91.8 points per game on the road this season, a feat that is 2nd best in the NBA. Offensively they have struggled scoring only 91 points per game and they are facing a Miami defense that held them to 39.7% shooting on May 26th.
This matchup falls into a system to play the under in a playoff series that is tied. This kind of logic makes perfect sense. You can never guarantee a good shooting night so if you want to win games you have to step up defensively. In a tied playoff series both teams are fighting for that crucial win to give them the advantage. This system is 88-56 (61%) to the under over the last 5 seasons. Expect to see both teams fighting a little harder on the defensive end of the court tonight.
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Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
Point Spread: Miami -8 Over/Under 181 (May 22nd 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central. Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 Wednesday games. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 Conference Finals games. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 3-1-1 in Heat last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 Conference Finals games. Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 Wednesday games. Under is 4-1-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a S.U. win. Under is 4-1-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a ATS win.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
| DATE |
HOME / AWAY |
LINE |
ATS MAR |
O/U |
HOME FG |
AWAY FG |
REB H-A |
| 03/10/13 |
MIA 105 - IND 91 |
MIA -6.5 |
7.5 |
O 188.0 |
38/68 |
26/63 |
28-33 |
| 02/01/13 |
IND 102 - MIA 89 |
IND 2 |
15.0 |
O 184.5 |
39/70 |
33/70 |
34-25 |
| 01/08/13 |
IND 87 - MIA 77 |
IND 2 |
12.0 |
U 187.0 |
33/91 |
28/68 |
55-36 |
| 05/24/12 |
IND 93 - MIA 105 |
MIA -2.5 |
9.5 |
O 182.0 |
34/70 |
41/76 |
37-26 |
| 05/22/12 |
MIA 115 - IND 83 |
MIA -7 |
25.0 |
O 180.5 |
43/70 |
30/89 |
49-35 |
| 05/20/12 |
IND 93 - MIA 101 |
MIA -2.0 |
6.0 |
O 179.0 |
33/79 |
38/80 |
38-47 |
| 05/17/12 |
IND 94 - MIA 75 |
IND 2 |
21.0 |
U 180.5 |
33/76 |
29/78 |
52-36 |
| 05/15/12 |
MIA 75 - IND 78 |
IND 6.5 |
9.5 |
U 186.0 |
27/78 |
28/74 |
40-50 |
| 05/13/12 |
MIA 95 - IND 86 |
MIA -8.5 |
0.5 |
U 186.5 |
33/81 |
31/77 |
45-38 |
| 03/26/12 |
IND 105 - MIA 90 |
IND 3.5 |
18.5 |
O 192.5 |
37/81 |
29/69 |
49-33 |
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Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Odds: New York -6 Over/Under 183 (May 7th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Pacers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Semifinals games.
Over/Under Trends:
Under is 6-0 in Knicks last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 7-0 in Knicks last 7 games following a ATS loss. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 home games. Over is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic. Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Pacers are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New York. Underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
| DATE |
HOME / AWAY |
LINE |
ATS MAR |
O/U |
HOME FG |
AWAY FG |
REB H-A |
| 05/05/13 |
NY 95 - IND 102 |
IND 5.0 |
12.0 |
O 181.5 |
35/81 |
37/76 |
30-44 |
| 04/14/13 |
NY 90 - IND 80 |
NY -3 |
7.0 |
U 193.5 |
35/82 |
28/65 |
32-45 |
| 02/20/13 |
IND 125 - NY 91 |
IND -4 |
30.0 |
O 185.0 |
42/79 |
29/86 |
54-39 |
| 01/10/13 |
IND 81 - NY 76 |
NY 5.5 |
0.5 |
U 184.0 |
31/79 |
31/89 |
48-51 |
| 11/18/12 |
NY 88 - IND 76 |
NY -7 |
5.0 |
U 186.5 |
33/90 |
28/71 |
48-47 |
| 04/03/12 |
IND 112 - NY 104 |
IND -5.5 |
2.5 |
O 192.0 |
41/86 |
38/83 |
45-44 |
| 03/17/12 |
IND 88 - NY 102 |
NY 4.0 |
18.0 |
U 198.0 |
32/79 |
32/77 |
42-46 |
| 03/16/12 |
NY 115 - IND 100 |
NY -4.5 |
10.5 |
O 197.0 |
41/81 |
32/81 |
44-39 |
| 04/10/11 |
IND 109 - NY 110 |
NY 2.5 |
3.5 |
U 220.5 |
39/88 |
31/80 |
48-42 |
| 03/15/11 |
IND 119 - NY 117 |
IND 5 |
7.0 |
O 215.5 |
46/88 |
40/89 |
46-41 |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Odds: Atlanta -1.5 Over/Under 186 (April 29th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Hawks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference. Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Pacers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 Monday games. Under is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 vs. NBA Central. Under is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games. Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 6-2 in Pacers last 8 overall. Under is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Favorite is 22-6 ATS in the last 28 meetings. Home team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Pacers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
| DATE |
HOME / AWAY |
LINE |
ATS MAR |
O/U |
HOME FG |
AWAY FG |
REB H-A |
| 04/27/13 |
ATL 90 - IND 69 |
ATL -2 |
19.0 |
U 188.5 |
35/82 |
22/81 |
48-52 |
| 04/24/13 |
IND 113 - ATL 98 |
IND -7.5 |
7.5 |
O 187.0 |
41/87 |
39/79 |
47-41 |
| 04/21/13 |
IND 107 - ATL 90 |
IND -7 |
10.0 |
O 185.5 |
35/78 |
38/76 |
48-32 |
| 03/25/13 |
IND 100 - ATL 94 |
ATL 6.5 |
0.5 |
O 184.5 |
40/84 |
36/80 |
49-38 |
| 02/05/13 |
IND 114 - ATL 103 |
IND -6 |
5.0 |
O 184.0 |
36/75 |
36/81 |
37-39 |
| 12/29/12 |
ATL 109 - IND 100 |
ATL -2.5 |
6.5 |
O 182.0 |
44/80 |
38/80 |
36-36 |
| 11/07/12 |
ATL 89 - IND 86 |
IND 4.0 |
1.0 |
U 192.0 |
38/87 |
35/84 |
51-41 |
| 03/06/12 |
IND 96 - ATL 101 |
ATL 8.0 |
13.0 |
O 184.0 |
31/70 |
38/83 |
37-45 |
| 02/08/12 |
ATL 97 - IND 87 |
ATL -3.5 |
6.5 |
U 188.0 |
35/76 |
33/75 |
45-33 |
| 01/11/12 |
IND 96 - ATL 84 |
IND -3 |
9.0 |
U 183.0 |
39/85 |
30/80 |
43-45 |
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NBA Playoffs Picks: April 24th 2013
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers (Game 2)
Prediction: Under 187 -110 odds
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This is the highest total these two teams have seen in one of their match ups since November 7th when the number was 191.5. The other four times these two teams played this year the numbers were 182, 184, 184, and 185.5. So, while all four of those games went over, the odds makers are adjusting this one heavily upwards and I think they overshot the mark.
Both teams are going to work on defense heading into this game. The Pacers allowed 50% shooting and 41.2% from outside the 3-point line. Atlanta on the other hand gave Indiana 34 attempts from the charity stripe. Neither coach wants to see numbers like that again.
Both teams have gone OVER in five of their last six games, so I’m going to buck that trend and play the UNDER for a small amount here tonight.
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
NBA Playoffs Odds: Indiana -7 Over/Under 185 (April 21st 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Pacers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Pacers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pacers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Pacers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Sunday games. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games. Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games. Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central. Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 10-2 in Pacers last 12 games following a ATS loss. Over is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 road games. Over is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games. Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 overall. Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Hawks are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
| DATE |
HOME / AWAY |
LINE |
ATS MAR |
O/U |
HOME FG |
AWAY FG |
REB H-A |
| 03/25/13 |
IND 100 - ATL 94 |
ATL 6.5 |
0.5 |
O 184.5 |
40/84 |
36/80 |
49-38 |
| 02/05/13 |
IND 114 - ATL 103 |
IND -6 |
5.0 |
O 184.0 |
36/75 |
36/81 |
37-39 |
| 12/29/12 |
ATL 109 - IND 100 |
ATL -2.5 |
6.5 |
O 182.0 |
44/80 |
38/80 |
36-36 |
| 11/07/12 |
ATL 89 - IND 86 |
IND 4.0 |
1.0 |
U 192.0 |
38/87 |
35/84 |
51-41 |
| 03/06/12 |
IND 96 - ATL 101 |
ATL 8.0 |
13.0 |
O 184.0 |
31/70 |
38/83 |
37-45 |
| 02/08/12 |
ATL 97 - IND 87 |
ATL -3.5 |
6.5 |
U 188.0 |
35/76 |
33/75 |
45-33 |
| 01/11/12 |
IND 96 - ATL 84 |
IND -3 |
9.0 |
U 183.0 |
39/85 |
30/80 |
43-45 |
| 04/08/11 |
IND 114 - ATL 102 |
IND -5.5 |
6.5 |
O 198.0 |
42/86 |
36/76 |
49-36 |
| 01/08/11 |
ATL 108 - IND 93 |
ATL -7 |
8.0 |
O 191.5 |
36/84 |
34/83 |
44-43 |
| 12/11/10 |
ATL 97 - IND 83 |
ATL -3.5 |
10.5 |
U 193.5 |
33/73 |
30/81 |
48-36 |
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NBA Picks: April 9th 2013
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Pick: Indiana Pacers -13.5
The Pacers are coming off a tough loss to Washington and will face a Cleveland team that has been plagued by injuries. This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Cleveland when they are playing for double revenge of two straight losses against an opponent when that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is has a long standing history of success with a 429-313 (58%) ATS record over the last five seasons.
This game falls into another system to play on a favorite that is a good team like Indiana when they are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game on the season and coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This system is 90-54 (63%) ATS over the last five seasons. Indiana’s defense has been solid at home holding opponents to 88.7 points per game and they offense should have no problem scoring on a Cavaliers defense that is allowing 102.5 points per game on the road. The Pacers should pick up a big win today. -Jimmy Boyd
Pick: New Orleans Hornets +9
The aging Lakers are just off a showdown game with the rival Clippers and have a game on deck tomorrow at uptempo Portland. This is a game they need, but are more likely to just get the win and prepare for the bigger challenge on deck on the road. New Orleans has gotten healthy and had a better second half of the season, even beating the Celtics, Grizzlies and Nuggets recently as a dog each time. The Lakers are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The road team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings between these teams and the Hornets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Play the Hornets. -Jim Feist
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
The last matchup between these teams went in the favor of the 76ers by 9 points. A chance in venue is not enough to swing this line by those 9 points plus an additional 7.5 points for a combined total of 16.5 points. The 76ers average only 1.7 points per game less on the road than they do at home and their defense allows only .7 points per game more when playing on the road. Brooklyn has been getting to much credit on their home court which is why they have a 14-22 ATS record. The Nets are also 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last five games and they are facing a 76ers team that is 9-6 ATS in division games. -Ryan James
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