Baseball Picks: April 23rd 2013
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Texas -110 odds
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Doc’s Sports Super Tuesday Free Play. Strong card coming on Tuesday after we go 3-0 on Monday in two different sports!

Free MLB baseball pick from Doc’s Sports Take #927 Texas Rangers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm ET) Just when it felt like the Los Angeles Angels were turning things around, they suffered a devastating loss to their division rivals the Texas Rangers last night. The Angels led 6-3 in the top of the 7th inning, when the Rangers tied it up and later won it in the 9th inning. It’s the kind of loss that sticks with you and will be hard to shake off today. At 7-11, the Angels haven’t been living up to expectations and the problems have been just about everywhere. The offense has been mediocre, the starting pitching subpar and the bullpen has just been a mess. Today they’ll get a look at Alexi Ogando, who is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA on the young season. He was moved into the rotation from the bullpen and I think it was a good move for Texas. Ogando knows how to pitch and has tons of upside. He should keep his ERA in the 3’s all season long and be a stalwart in this rotation. The Angels counter with left-hander Jason Vargas. The 30-year old came over from Seattle in an offseason trade, but has had trouble adjusting to his new surroundings. He’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.32 WHIP and is walking nearly as many batters as he’s striking out. Vargas was never thought of as a good pitcher throughout baseball, but the Angels may have been a little bit fooled by his decent numbers in Seattle because of the ballpark dimensions. The Rangers are off to a hot start at 13-6 and the Angels are not. While I think this Angels team will be a lot better as the season goes on, this just seems like a huge mismatch at this point in the season. Take the Rangers here.

MLB Predictions: April 5th 2013
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Pick: Over 10 runs
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These two teams have played 13 of 19 games Over the total in Arlington, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday afternoon.

There are many storylines to the matchup between the Rangers and Angels on Friday afternoon. Josh Hamilton returns to Texas in a Los Angeles uniform and Jason Vargas stayed in the division to join the Angels. The southpaw went 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA in four starts against the Rangers last season. He’s also coming off a rough Spring as he allowed 19 runs and 30 hits in just over 22 innings. Texas averaged 4.3 runs per game in their series against the Astros and they are hitting .262 early this season.

Derek Holland goes for the home team and he’s been torched by the Angels in his career. He is 7-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 13 starts against Los Angeles. He gave up 21 earned runs in 27 innings pitched against the Halos last year. Erick Aybar (11-35), Alberto Callaspo (11-31), Howard Kendrick (12-38), Albert Pujols (6-13), Mike Trout (5-14) and Mark Trumbo (8-25) all have had success against the Rangers starter. They will be glad to have a full complement of players for this game as they had to scrap the DH in Cincinnati for the first series of the season. These two teams have played 13 of 19 games Over the total in Arlington, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday afternoon.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Betting Prediction: Angels +113 odds (April 4th 2013)
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The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, I’m going off raw stats and value here and not public’s or the media’s perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.

Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and he’s a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS.

Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. He’s got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. I’m not suggesting he won’t give up a lot of HR’s again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blanton’s abilities which is throwing Angels +113 (1* FREE PLAY)
The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, I’m going off raw stats and value here and not public’s or the media’s perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.

Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and he’s a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS. If you find this Angels vs. Reds MLB prediction useful, be sure to check out Freddy’s premium MLB baseball picks at Touthouse.com

Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. He’s got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. I’m not suggesting he won’t give up a lot of HR’s again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blanton’s abilities which is throwing strikes and getting batters to miss.

Both pitchers will rely on not giving up HR’s and I think they will both be successful today so that turns the game into small ball and Blanton ranked 22nd best in contract rate while Arroyo was 8th worst allowing 85% of his pitches to be hit. He gave up 30 hits and a .333 average in sprint training and now he goes up against a talented line up. I expect him to have runners on base all day long. Can he win? Absolutely, but I’ll fade a pitcher as a favorite that will put more guys on base than his opponent.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Betting Pick: Detroit Tigers -110 odds (August 24th 2012)
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Doc’s Sports FREE PLAY MLB Friday August 24th 2012- Take #968 Detroit over LA Angels (7:05pm est): Not sure how much left in the tank the traveling LAA Angels have here in this one tonight, a game which will have a playoff type atmosphere for sure. Yesterday’s 14-13 winning battle versus the Boston Red Sox looked and felt like it may have taken quite a bit out of this surging Angels squad. Now asked to travel after that game to play a Detroit Tigers team who sits at home and waits their arrival, won’t be an easy task at all for the Angels here in this one.

Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Angels tonight and boy has this expierment not worked out well for LAA at this time. The reason for the Greinke troubles so far could be many things but the bottom line is things are jus a lot more difficult for a pitcher in American League than they are in the much easier National League. Add in the fact there seems to be some truth behind the fact that Greinke just doesn’t quite pitch as well when the heat is turned up on him and it should be really turned up in this one here in Detroit, where a sold out crowd is expected tonight for this big game. The Angels also look to be without Albert Pujols in this one as the slugger is slowed by some injury concerns at this time.

On the Tigers end of things there is also talk they may be without their best hitter but I get the feeling that Miguel Cabrera will suit up for this one for Detroit. His injury yesterday didn’t look serious and the reports are that he is fine, we shall see. Either way the Tigers are beasts at home as they continue to play as well as any team in baseball there, now having won 20 of their last 26 contests at home. They hand the ball here to Rick Porcello, a young guy who has pitched well before in these big time games. Porcello pitched a gem last week but allowed a late home run to spoil what was an outstanding outing for the right-hander. In fact the Tigers have won all five of the last five starts Porcello has had at home versus these Angels.

Play Detroit here in this one.

MLB Betting Lines: August 16th 2012
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays -115
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The Rays should be very focused at the plate today after getting no-hit yesterday. I like their chances of putting some runs on the board against Dan Haren, who has a 4.68 ERA on the season. The Angels are 4-9 in Haren’s last 13 home starts.

The Rays are in better hands with ace David Price getting the ball. He is 15-4 with a 2.50 ERA. The Rays are 5-1 in Price’s last 6 road starts and 17-4 in his last 21 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150.

It is also worth noting that the Rays are 8-1 in their last 9 games against the Angels. Take Tampa Bay.

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MLB Picks: July 31st 2012
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -101
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The Los Angeles Angels now sit just four games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West division after exploding for 15 runs last night in a Game 1 victory. I look for Jered Weaver to shut down the Rangers in Game 2, while the Angels stay red hot at the plate against Texas’ Derek Holland.

Weaver has posted Cy Young-worthy numbers in 2012. The right-hander is 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Weaver is 10-7 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 27 career starts against Texas. He allowed one earned run over seven innings to earn the win in his last start against the Rangers on July 20th in a 6-1 Los Angeles victory.

Holland has been inconsistent all season. The left-hander is 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 15 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 6.06 ERA in eight home starts. Holland is 4-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in 10 career starts against Los Angeles. He was Weaver’s opponent in that July 20th game, yielding six earned runs over 6 2/3 innings to take the loss.

The Angels are 41-15 in Weaver’s last 56 starts overall, including 15-3 in his 18 starts in 2012. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Weaver’s last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The Angels are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

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MLB Betting Predictions: July 21st 2012
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Over 8
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Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the best line-ups in all of baseball, and they should not have a problem combining to score nine or more runs in this one.

Yu Darvish and Ervin Santana are getting too much respect here. Santana is 4-9 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.390 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 10.95 ERA and 2.352 WHIP in his last three.

Darvish is 10-6 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 17 starts, 3-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in nine road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA in his last three. Santana is 12-9 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 14 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 4-0 in Darvish’s last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 10-2-1 in Angels last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Angels last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Santana’s last 9 starts overall. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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MLB Picks: July 16th 2012
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Detroit Tigers -116
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Detroit won two of three in Baltimore over the weekend to keep pace with the White Sox in the American League Central. The Tigers are only three games over .500 but trail Chicago by just 3.5 games so everything is still well within reach. They had won five straight games prior to the series win and all of those came at home where they are finally back over .500 once again. The offense has started to produce a lot more and the Tigers are 15-5 in their last 20 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150.

The Angels lost two of three in New York but it was able to salvage the final game to avoid the sweep. They have been playing a lot better after a very slow start but they have dropped four of their last five road games and still trail the Rangers by five games in the American League West. The problem has been pitching with a starting ERA of 4.49 on the highway and this is another tough spot as Los Angeles is 3-7 in its last 10 games as a road underdog.

The Tigers trot out Rick Porcello who has been pitching much better of late. He did struggle in his last outing where he went just 3.2 innings and allowed three runs but prior to that, he tossed three straight quality outings which was the first time all season he had accomplished that. Detroit has won his last three starts and six of his last eight as it has been piling up the runs after not doing so in the first part of the season. The Tigers are 21-9 in Porcello’s last 30 starts as a favorite.

The Angels hope the All-Star break helped Ervin Santana as he is coming off two dreadful outings. He allowed 13 runs in 6.1 innings including giving up eight runs in only 1.1 innings against the Indians last time out. He has been shellacked in his last three road starts, posting a 15.00 ERA in those games. The road has always been an issue for Santana and it is definitely showing right now. Going back further, the Angels are 1-8 in Santana’s last nine starts against teams with a winning record. 3* (914) Detroit Tigers -Matt Fargo

MLB Baseball Picks: July 13th 2012
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +120
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The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value as an underdog to the New York Yankees in Game 1 of this series Friday. The Angels have been playing great for nearly two months now to get to 48-38. They currently own the wild-card sport in the AL, while also trailing Texas by just four games in the AL West.

Los Angeles starter C.J. Wilson has definitely earned his hefty contract up to this point. The left-hander is 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 18 starts, including 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 11 road outings. He’s the better starter in this one as Hiroki Kuroda is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.259 WHIP in 17 starts this season for the Yankees.

The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are 7-0 in Wilson’s last 7 road starts. Los Angeles is 8-1 in Wilson’s last 9 starts overall. Bet the Angels Friday. -Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -125 odds (June 27th 2012)

Jerred Weaver is getting great odds here and the reason is he has a 4.21 ERA away, but take away his disaster start in Arlington vs. the best hitting team in the league and he has a 2.45 ERA on the road this year. He’s coming off a start in which he only pitched 78 pitches off the DL and was great. He’s got great numbers vs. the Orioles as they collectively have 124 AB .194 average and .601 OPS and without Nick Markakis in the line up their offense is sinking fast and so is Adam Jones. The Orioles are now 24th in OPS vs. RHP and they have a .166 average with 2.30 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP. In the month of June the Angels are #2 with a .824 OPS while the Orioles are 28th .652.

Now they do get their stud pitcher in Jason Hammel going tonight however Hammel has had success of late (1.57 ERA over last 3 starts) against National League teams – Phillies, Braves, and the Nationals. None of which possess a lineup like the Angels. -Freddy Wills