NHL Picks: March 15th 2013
New Jersey Devils vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philly -128
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Including yesterday’s complimentary winner on Minnesota, I’m now 11-2 the last two days & 13-3 the last three.

Here’s another reasonably priced favorite which I feel has a solid shot at cashing.
These teams just met two days ago, at New Jersey. The Devils won that one by a score of 5-3.

The Devils are now 3-0 in the season series. However, a closer look shows that all three of those games have been played at New Jersey.

This evening, the revenge-minded Flyers finally get a chance to play on home ice. Remember, the Devils also knocked them out of the playoffs last season. They’ll be looking to “settle the score” and I expect a highly motivated effort.

After Wednesday’s loss Philadelphia’s Scott Hartnell had this to say: “This one hurts. It stings. You can use any adjective you want, but tomorrow is a new day. We have to come to the rink with a new attitude and get through this …”

While the Devils have been tough to beat at New Jersey, they’re an ugly 4-9 (4-6-3) on the road. They’ve been outscored by an average margin of 3.2 to 2.1, when playing away from home.

On the other hand, the Flyers are 8-5 (8-4-1) on home ice. They’ve outscored opposing teams by a 2.9 to 2.7 margin, here at Philadelphia.

While they’ve now lost six straight at New Jersey, the Flyers are a respectable 12-6 the last 18 times that they were a host in this series.

The Flyers beat Buffalo the last time that they played here, moving to 3-1 their last four on home ice. Consider Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New Jersey Devils
Odds: New Jersey -139 Over/Under 5 (February 15th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Devils are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Atlantic. Devils are 5-1 in their last 6 overall. Devils are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Devils are 8-2 in their last 10 Friday games. Devils are 40-13 in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Flyers are 9-4 in their last 13 games playing on 2 days rest. Flyers are 3-8 in their last 11 Friday games. Flyers are 2-7 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Flyers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games. Flyers are 1-7 in their last 8 vs. Atlantic.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 5-0 in Devils last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Under is 4-0-2 in Devils last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-0 in Devils last 4 vs. Atlantic. Under is 3-1-3 in Devils last 7 Friday games. Under is 8-3-2 in Devils last 13 home games. Under is 5-0 in Flyers last 5 vs. Atlantic. Under is 4-1 in Flyers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 3-1-1 in Flyers last 5 road games. Over is 9-3-2 in Flyers last 14 games following a win. Over is 5-2-2 in Flyers last 9 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Home team is 44-21 in the last 65 meetings. Flyers are 8-22 in the last 30 meetings in New Jersey. Flyers are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Betting Line: Pittsburgh Penguins -190 Over/Under 7 (April 20th 2012)
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Rickenbach TOP *10* NHL *DOG OF THE WEEK*! 19-5 RUN!
Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach has had just 16 losing days the past 60 days after going 8-2 past 3 days overall! Scott has a TOP *10* NHL *DOG OF THE WEEK* going Friday! Scott is crushing the NHL going 19-5 L24 NHL plays, 79% winners and 12-3 80% L15! 49-27 64% L76 *10*’s in all sports!

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ATS Trends:
Penguins are 18-5 in their last 23 home games.
Penguins are 18-6 in their last 24 vs. a team with a winning record.
Penguins are 66-25 in their last 91 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
Penguins are 13-5 in their last 18 games following a win.
Penguins are 17-7 in their last 24 games playing on 1 days rest.
Flyers are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Flyers are 5-1 in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 6-0-1 in Penguins last 7 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 4-0-1 in Penguins last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 6-0-1 in Penguins last 7 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 games after allowing 8 or more power play opportunities in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 playoff games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
Over is 6-0 in Flyers last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0-1 in Flyers last 5 road games.
Over is 6-0-1 in Flyers last 7 vs. Atlantic.
Over is 3-0-1 in Flyers last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Over is 3-0-1 in Flyers last 4 games as a road underdog.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Flyers are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Pittsburgh.
Flyers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
Road team is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings.
Underdog is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Flyers Last 5 Games:

Penguins Last 5 Games:

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Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Betting Prediction: Under 6 goals -110 odds (April 13th 2012)
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Nice start to the NHL playoffs. I’ve gone 2-0 with my premium (guarnateed) plays while also going 2-0 with free plays. After a win with LA over Vancouver Wednesday, I came back with an underdog winner on San Jose over St. Louis yesterday. Today’s complimentary total also offers the chance to get more back than we wagered.

In other words, we’re able to get “plus money” on the “under 6″ for this game. While the first game was indeed high-scoring (4-3 Flyers in OT) I feel that’s providing us with excellent value. With all due respect to these offenses, in my humble opinion, I feel that’s simply too high for a playoff game.

While the Pens have certainly been a high-scoring team, keep in mind that the “under” is stil 4-1-1 when the Flyers have played a road game with an O/U line of six, 13-7-2 their last 22 in that situation.

Four of six regular season meetings produced six or fewer goals. I feel this one has a better chance of finishing with less than six than I do with more than six goals. That being the case, this price provides value. Consider the Under.