Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Baseball Betting Prediction: Miami +145 odds (May 8th 2013)
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The Marlins have dropped the first two games of this series – not a big surprise when you consider the Padres were priced at -190 and -175 in those two contests.
I think we’ll see a far more evenly-matched affair this afternoon, as Miami looks to avoid the sweep, and turns to its ‘staff ace by default’, Ricky Nolasco.
Nolasco hasn’t been anything special this season, but he certainly hasn’t been awful either. He’s worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and has given up more than three earned runs only twice. While he has been tagged for six home runs, he’s managed to limit the damage by limiting the number of free passes handed out (only 10 walks in 41 1/3 innings). Note that Nolasco faced the Padres once last season, right here in San Diego, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a 6-3 Marlins victory.
Jason Marquis will counter for the Padres. After pitching well in his first three starts this season, we’ve seen some considerable regression from Marquis over his last three outings. That’s not to say he’s given up a ton of runs, in fact, he’s allowed only five earned runs in his last two starts, however his walk totals have been creeping up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio now stands at a miserable 23:19 in 36 innings pitched this season. He hasn’t been a great fit here at Petco Park, posting a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.
After getting outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series, it’s easy to forget that the Marlins had won back-to-back games heading in, outscoring the Phillies by a combined 16-2 score last Saturday and Sunday. They’ve actually played .500 ball over their last 10 games (5-5).
The Padres are rolling along nicely right now, but they’re far from invincible here at home, having gone just 9-8 on the season. Look for the Marlins to find a way to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Take Miami (1*).