Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Baseball Betting Prediction: Miami +145 odds (May 8th 2013)
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The Marlins have dropped the first two games of this series – not a big surprise when you consider the Padres were priced at -190 and -175 in those two contests.

I think we’ll see a far more evenly-matched affair this afternoon, as Miami looks to avoid the sweep, and turns to its ‘staff ace by default’, Ricky Nolasco.

Nolasco hasn’t been anything special this season, but he certainly hasn’t been awful either. He’s worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and has given up more than three earned runs only twice. While he has been tagged for six home runs, he’s managed to limit the damage by limiting the number of free passes handed out (only 10 walks in 41 1/3 innings). Note that Nolasco faced the Padres once last season, right here in San Diego, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a 6-3 Marlins victory.

Jason Marquis will counter for the Padres. After pitching well in his first three starts this season, we’ve seen some considerable regression from Marquis over his last three outings. That’s not to say he’s given up a ton of runs, in fact, he’s allowed only five earned runs in his last two starts, however his walk totals have been creeping up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio now stands at a miserable 23:19 in 36 innings pitched this season. He hasn’t been a great fit here at Petco Park, posting a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.

After getting outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series, it’s easy to forget that the Marlins had won back-to-back games heading in, outscoring the Phillies by a combined 16-2 score last Saturday and Sunday. They’ve actually played .500 ball over their last 10 games (5-5).

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The Padres are rolling along nicely right now, but they’re far from invincible here at home, having gone just 9-8 on the season. Look for the Marlins to find a way to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Take Miami (1*).

Baseball Betting Picks: May 6th 2013
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: Miami Marlins +155 odds
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The Marlins destroy Roy Halladay and the Phillies on Sunday, 14-2, and still don’t get any respect judging by their huge ‘dog price in this matchup.

OK, the Marlins aren’t worthy of much respect. Scoring 14 runs doesn’t erase the stigma of being the worst team in the National League.

But still this price is way out of whack. The Marlins have beaten the Padres five of the last six times and the pitching matchup is Wade LeBlanc versus Andrew Cashner.

LeBlanc is a stiff – when he’s pitching at any other stadium except Petco Park. LeBlanc pitched for the Padres from 2008 to 2011 and was tough at home compiling a 2.97 ERA in 25 career appearances, including 24 starts, at Petco. This will be his first start at Petco against his former team and he’s going to be pumped. He also knows his former teammates well.

Cashner isn’t nearly good enough to be in this kind of chalk range. I’ve always thought he’s a better reliever than starter. Cashner lacks stamina and control. He’s only lasted four innings in two of his three starts since joining the rotation. He has a 4.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He’s faced the Marlins four times – all in relief – and has an 11.57 ERA against them.

By bombing the Phillies, the Marlins showed they are capable of putting up runs despite not having their best offensive player, Giancarlo Stanton. He’s been replaced by rookie Marcell Ozuna, who is swinging a hot bat. Ozuna is 11-for-23 in six games since replacing Stanton. That’s the most hits ever by a Marlin rookie during his first six games.

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
MLB Prediction: San Diego +131 odds (May 2nd 2013)
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The Padres ran into a hot pitcher (at least for one game) in Scott Feldman last night, as he held them to three hits and struck out 12 over the course of a complete game victory. I don’t expect a repeat performance on Thursday, as the Cubs turn to Travis Wood.

Wood has been solid in the early going this season, but as far as I’m concerned he’s been pitching over his head, and we should see some regression moving forward. Don’t miss out on all of Sean Murphy’s expert MLB predictions for May 2nd 2013 at Touthouse.com. Purchase a premium package today!

Note that Wood has posted ERAs north of four in each of the last two seasons. He checks into Thursday’s start sporting an excellent 2.25 ERA. Note that he faced the Padres right here at Wrigley Field last season and gave up seven hits and six earned runs over just five innings of work.

San Diego will counter with Eric Stults. The journeyman left-hander has struggled over his last two starts, both coming against the Giants. He has proven he can win on the road, however, guiding the Padres to victories in New York (against the Mets) and Los Angeles (against the Dodgers) this season. He’s struck out 13 while walking only three in 18 innings of work away from home.

Bouncing back from an ugly loss often isn’t as difficult to do in baseball as it is in some of the other sports. The season is a long grind, and there will be games where the offense simply can’t get going – just as we saw from the Pads’ last night. That poor performance doesn’t change the fact that San Diego has been playing well lately, and I look for it to foil Chicago’s chances of picking up a series win on Thursday afternoon. Take San Diego (1*).

Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Betting Prediction: Brewers -116 line (April 24th 2013)
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The Milwaukee Brewers have a huge edge on the mound Wednesday, and I’ll side with them because of it. I’ll gladly take the underrated Marco Estrada at this price against San Diego’s Edinson Volquez.

Estrada is coming off a solid 2012 campaign in which he went 5-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 23 starts and six relief appearances. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA through four starts in 2013, including 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two road starts.

Edinson Volquez continues to get rocked year after year. That has certainly been the case in the early going in 2013. Volquez is 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in four starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs and 39 base runners in 18 1/3 innings of work.

Volquez is 3-3 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 10 career starts against Milwaukee. San Diego is 2-13 (-10.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Bet the Brewers Wednesday.

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Baseball Picks: April 13th 2013
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego +1.5 -155
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The Padres will be without Carlos Quentin for eight games after he was suspended for charging the mound and injuring Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke. This takes a little power out of the lineup for San Diego, but Quentin wasn’t exactly banging them out of the park this year anyway. He’s hitting .182 with no home runs and three RBIs.

San Diego looks to bounce back from three consecutive losses, as they face the Rockies in Game 2 of a three game series on Saturday. Note that two of those three losses came by a one-run margin.

The Padres send Edinson Volquez to the mound tonight, and he was rocked by the Rockies in Colorado in his last start. He allowed four runs on nine hits, including a home run over six innings. It’s important to keep in mind that any numbers we see for a pitcher at Coors Field have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Volquez will make his first start of the season at Petco tonight, and he was much better at home in 2012 than he was on the road. He had a record of 6-5 with a respectable 2.93 ERA at home, in comparison to a rather ugly 5.60 ERA on the road.

The Rockies will counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who has had a pretty solid start to the season. They will still be concerned with Chacin though, as he’s been plagued with control problems his entire career. He did issue three walks in his debut, with the Rockies losing 5-4 to the Brewers.

Petco is known to be a friendly environment for pitchers, so a close ballgame would be no surprise here. I like the Padres to win outright, but a play on the RL appears to be an even better bet.

Take the Padres +1.5. – If you are looking for all of Jesse Schule’s premium MLB picks for April 13th 2013, be sure to visit his handicapper page each day at Touthouse.com

Baseball Picks: April 11th 2013
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers -160
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Today’s comp MLB baseball pick is Los Angeles over San Diego. LA is 5-3 but after a shaky start, the team has taken 4 of their L5 by playing solid baseball. Crawford, Gonzalez, and Ellis, have combined for 34 hits, 9 BBs, 12 Runs scored, and each are batting .357 or higher. Then throw in the mix, Ethier ‘s .320 BA and 8 hits, and the meat of this lineup is dangerous. They are starting to sync and as the team meshes, they get better and better. As far as their pitching goes, the Dodgers are #1 in the MLB in Quality Starts and WHIP, and are #2 in ERA at 2.15. Zack Greinke takes the mound here. The RH is 1-0, yielding just 2 hits, 0 BBs, fanning 6, in 6.3 IP over Pittsburgh. In his career, the ace is 1-0with a 3.00 ERA vs. San Diego. He faces a Padres team that is 2-6, averaging 3.25 RPG with just one solid outing. They have been outscored by 9, 4, 3, 3, 8, and 1. Their offense has 49 Ks and just 23 RBIs. They have seven players with 22 or more ABs and only Mike Hundley is hitting anything respectable at .318. The other six top out at .267 and go all the way down to 0.83. The team ranks 24th or worse in every offensive area while their pitching and defensive stats are worse ranking 29th in ERA at 5.64, 29th in WHIP at 1.63, 25th in Ks with 56, and 30th in Quality Starts with only 1. Oh yeah, they are also 23rd in Errors with 6. Jason Marquis gets the nod. The RH is 0-1, giving up 6 hits with an ERA of 3.00 vs. Colorado. In his 3 starts against LA, Marquis allowed 16 hits, walked 9, had 7 ERs and went 1-2. The Dodgers are 22-10 their L32 meetings over the Padres, 6-1 their L7 vs. RH starters, and 8-2 their L10 vs. teams with a winning percentage under .400. The Padres are 1-5 their L6 vs. the NL West, 3-9 their L12 vs. RH starters, and 2-5 their L7 games played at home. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -115 odds (September 10th 2012)
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Take #913 St. Louis Cardinals over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST) With only 22 games remaining, it’s time to bear down for the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Birds are currently holding the second wild card spot in the National League, but the Dodgers and Pirates aren’t far back and every game from here on out is extremely important. The Cardinals showed last season that they get better with more pressure, and that should give them a little extra mental edge as the games grow in magnitude. They start a key 7-game West Coast trip tonight against the San Diego Padres and Jaime Garcia will make the start. He’s coming off one of his better performances of the season in which he pitched 7 1/3 innings allowing no earned runs with five strikeouts and no walks. This will be his fifth start after coming off of the disabled list, and it appears that he’s finally comfortable on the mound again. And when Garcia is right, he has top of the rotation kind of stuff.

Eric Stults is on the other side for the Padres. The left-hander was acquired earlier in the season when San Diego desperately needed a starter to plug a hole in the rotation due to injuries. He doesn’t have great stuff and rarely gets his fastball into the 90’s. He thrives on deception, but a great Cardinals lineup isn’t fooled so easily. St. Louis is first in the league in runs scored and hasn’t missed a beat despite incurring several key injuries throughout the season. Stults has decent numbers, but a lot of that has to do with pitching in Petco Park and the fact that he was in the bullpen for part of the season. I don’t project him very well as a starter and I expect the Cards to knock him out of the game early today. Take St. Louis behind Garcia as they should start out their West Coast trip with a victory tonight.

MLB Betting Predictions: July 30th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -144
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The red-hot Reds have won 10 in a row, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against San Diego, a club they have defeated 8 times in the past 11 meetings.

Cincy’s Leake has pitched well enough to keep the team in games this season. The Reds are 4-1 in his last 5 starts, 5-2 in his last 7 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Volquez has been solid for San Diego, but he often doesn’t receive the benefit of good run support. The Padres are 2-5 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. We’ll take the Reds.

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Baseball Predictions: June 27th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros -113
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The Astros, who are 22-18 at home, are showing value at this price against a San Diego club that is 11-24 on the road. The Padres are 5-23 in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 11-2 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Richard has pitched well for San Diego of late but his road struggles on the season can’t be ignored. He’s 2-4 (2-6 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.88 in 6 road starts.

Houston’s Harrell has been a solid investment at home where he is 4-1 (4-2 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.48 in 6 starts.

Take Houston.

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Baseball Betting Picks: June 6th 2012
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Pick: San Francisco Giants -125
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The San Francisco Giants have the edge here as they put the better southpaw on the hill, and they have had more success than San Diego against lefty starters this season.

San Fran’s Bumgarner is 6-4 (7-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.04 on the season. The Giants are 13-5 in his last 18 starts overall. San Diego’s Richard, meanwhile, is 2-6 (3-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.44. The Padres are just 8-20 in his last 28 starts.

The Giants are 12-5 against left-handed starters this season, hitting them at a .244 clip. The Padres are 4-16 against southpaw starters this season, hitting just .209 off of them.

The Giants have won 8 of their last 11 versus San Diego, and they are 4-0 in Bumgarner’s last 4 starts in the series. Take the Giants.

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