MLB Predictions: June 5th 2013
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Over 7.5 runs -110 odds
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After an early move up to ’8′ we’ve seen this total settle back down to ’7.5′ at most books, a clear reaction to last night’s low-scoring 2-1 game in favor of the Giants. It’s the wrong move, in my opinion.
The Jays were held to a single run last night but entering this series they had been playing fairly consistent offensive ball, having scored at least three runs in 14 straight games. I fully expect to see them get back on track against Barry Zito on Wednesday afternoon, noting that the ball always carries much better in the afternoon sunshine at AT&T Park.
Of course, Toronto has already seen Zito once this season, roughing him up for 12 hits and eight runs (five of them earned) in an eventual 10-6 win at Rogers Centre back on May 14th. Zito was fortunate to hold the A’s to only one earned run over six innings in his most recent outing, issuing a whopping six walks in that start. He needed 117 pitches to get through that outing and I won’t be surprised if that has a bit of a lingering effect this afternoon.
San Francisco hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately, but I do envision the Giants hanging a crooked number on the board today. They’ll face R.A. Dickey, who has been a massive disappointment in his first year with the Jays.
Dickey comes into this start at a low point in his season, having allowed 20 hits and 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work over his last two starts. The fact that this total is sitting at 7.5 is interesting as his last six outings have reached 9, 9, 16, 12, 11, and 14 total runs. Perhaps the oddsmakers are thinking a return to a National League park will help his cause. I’m not so easily convinced.
The two-game set between these two teams back in mid-May produced 30 runs, and while I’m not expecting an all-out slugfest on Wednesday afternoon, I am confident that we’ll see enough offense to help this one ‘over’ the rather low posted total. Take the over (1*).