Baseball Predictions: May 12th 2013
Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland A’s -125 odds
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Although we got beat hard on our free MLB picks yesterday as well as our 3* early bird special with the NY Mets, we hit on both of our POD’s with the Yankees +130 and the Memphis Grizzlies and Thunder under giving us a profitable day. Sunday we look for another profitable day starting with our free play which will also be backed by a third party sports monitor. Sunday’s card has just 3 cold starters with a total of 11 pitchers with ERA’s under 3.00 over their last three starts combined. However, I’m able to weed out the guys who are posers and give you guys some value on Mothers Day.
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Hot Pitcher – Take Milone -125 1.25* FREE PLAY
Tommy Milone has posted a 0.92 WHIP and 1.74 ERA over his last three starts without a win to show for it, but I think that changes on Sunday when he faces the Mariners who he has posted a 2.63 ERA against in 6 career starts. Milone has impressive numbers with 8.02 K/9 and 1.17 BB/9 he throws 4 different pitches and mixes them well. He throws his first pitch for a strike 70% of the time and that will do him good against the Mariners who are 28th in swing %. He’s really everything that the opposing pitcher is not and we are getting tremendous value because the stat line shows Joe Saunders is an excellent pitcher at home, but I feel that’s more of a coincidence. The A’s have hit lefties well in fact they are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP and are scoring more than 2 runs more per 9 innings overall and on the road than the Mariners are overall or at home. They also are backed by a bullpen that’s about a run better in ERA no matter how you split it, but the real advantage for the A’s today is because of Tommy Milone.
Joe Saunders has not pitched well he’s one of a few pitchers who are walking more guys than they are striking out. That’s due to the fact that he’s 77th among starting pitchers in 1st strike % and he’s 110th in swinging strike %. That does not bode well against the A’s who are very patient in fact they are the 2nd most patient team and they don’t swing at much outside the zone. I can see a lot of counts starting 1-0 today and that’s a huge advantage for the Athletics hitters whose active line up has really good numbers against Saunders. Saunders also will be facing the A’s for the second time this year. That has happened twice already this year for Saunders and his second start has not gone well as he’s posted a 13.96 ERA in the second time facing a team this year.
Notable Hot Starters:
Chris Sale (3-0, 21.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.11 ERA)
Kyle Kendrick (3-0, 23 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 1.57 ERA)
Matt Harvey (2-1, 20.1, 0.74 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)
Ryan Dempster (2-1, 19 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (2-1, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Ervin Santana (2-1, 20 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Scott Diamond (2-1, 19.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.33 ERA)
Scott Feldman (3-0, 22.2 IP, 0.71 WHIP, 1.99 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.25 ERA)
Cold Starter Of The Day:
With just three pitchers with ERA’s over 6 over their last three starts there really is not much selection here, but I would go with Wily Peralta at +145 over the Reds. The Reds have only faced him once and he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings while the Brewers will face Bronson Arroyo who they have seen many times before.
Notable Cold Starters:
Rick Procello (2-1, 14 IP, 1.57 WHIP, 9.64 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 19 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 8.05 ERA)