Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread: Atlanta OFF Over/Under OFF (December 30th 2012)
Week 17 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Falcons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 17. Falcons are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Buccaneers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Buccaneers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf. Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over/Under Trends:
Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 home games. Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games on fieldturf. Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 vs. NFC. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Buccaneers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
| ATLANTA LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 12/22/12 |
@DET |
W 31-18 |
W -3.5 |
U 50 |
|
-178 |
-6 |
-172 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
| 12/16/12 |
NYG |
W 34-0 |
W -1 |
U 50 |
|
138 |
32 |
106 |
0.4 |
-1.2 |
3.1 |
| 12/09/12 |
@CAR |
L 20-30 |
L -3 |
O 46.5 |
|
-113 |
-160 |
47 |
-1.1 |
-2.9 |
-1.3 |
| 11/29/12 |
NO |
W 23-13 |
W -3.5 |
U 54 |
|
-153 |
23 |
-176 |
-0.9 |
1.0 |
-1.9 |
| 11/25/12 |
@TB |
W 24-23 |
P -1 |
U 50.5 |
|
98 |
29 |
69 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
| TAMPA BAY LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 12/23/12 |
STL |
L 13-28 |
L -3 |
U 43.5 |
|
144 |
-9 |
153 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
-0.8 |
| 12/16/12 |
@NO |
L 0-41 |
L 3.5 |
U 54.5 |
|
-61 |
-82 |
21 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
| 12/09/12 |
PHI |
L 21-23 |
L -8 |
U 47.5 |
|
-53 |
107 |
-160 |
-0.7 |
2.4 |
-1.4 |
| 12/02/12 |
@DEN |
L 23-31 |
W 9.5 |
O 50 |
|
-27 |
-20 |
-7 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
| 11/25/12 |
ATL |
L 23-24 |
P 1 |
U 50.5 |
|
-98 |
-29 |
-69 |
-1.3 |
-0.9 |
-1.9 |
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St. Louis Rams vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -3 Over/Under 43 (December 23rd 2012)
Week 16 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Rams are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games in Week 16. Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 7-2 in Buccaneers last 9 games on grass. Over is 26-9-1 in Buccaneers last 36 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games in December. Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. NFC. Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a ATS loss.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
ST. LOUIS |
TAMPA BAY |
| DATE |
AWAY/HOME |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 10/24/10 |
STL 17 - TB 18 |
STL 3 |
U 39.5 |
|
285 |
161 |
124 |
313 |
124 |
189 |
| 09/23/07 |
STL 3 - TB 24 |
TB -3.5 |
U 38.5 |
|
245 |
136 |
109 |
322 |
182 |
140 |
| 10/18/04 |
TB 21 - STL 28 |
Push -7.0 |
O 42.5 |
|
324 |
94 |
230 |
332 |
55 |
277 |
| 09/23/02 |
STL 14 - TB 26 |
TB 3 |
U 43.5 |
|
358 |
89 |
269 |
252 |
63 |
189 |
| 11/26/01 |
TB 24 - STL 17 |
TB 10 |
U 47.5 |
|
345 |
76 |
269 |
264 |
97 |
167 |
| 12/18/00 |
STL 35 - TB 38 |
TB 2.5 |
O 47.5 |
|
388 |
90 |
298 |
446 |
205 |
241 |
| 01/23/00 |
TB 6 - STL 11 |
TB 14.5 |
U 44 |
|
309 |
51 |
258 |
203 |
77 |
126 |
| 12/11/94 |
STL 14 - TB 24 |
TB -2.5 |
U 40 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 12/06/92 |
STL 31 - TB 27 |
STL 1 |
O 39.5 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 09/16/90 |
STL 35 - TB 14 |
STL -3 |
O 47 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -7 Over/Under 47 (December 9th 2012)
Week 14 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Buccaneers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 14. Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Eagles are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 8-1 in Buccaneers last 9 games overall. Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers last 8 games on grass. Over is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games in December. Under is 7-1 in Eagles last 8 road games. Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games on grass. Under is 26-10 in Eagles last 36 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 games overall. Under is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
No Trends
| RECENT MEETINGS |
PHILADELPHIA |
TAMPA BAY |
| DATE |
AWAY/HOME |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 10/11/09 |
TB 14 - PHI 33 |
PHI -15.5 |
O 41.5 |
|
325 |
76 |
249 |
303 |
85 |
218 |
| 10/22/06 |
PHI 21 - TB 23 |
TB 6 |
O 42 |
|
506 |
208 |
298 |
196 |
111 |
85 |
| 09/08/03 |
TB 17 - PHI 0 |
TB 3 |
U 36 |
|
245 |
121 |
124 |
328 |
90 |
238 |
| 01/19/03 |
TB 27 - PHI 10 |
TB 4.5 |
O 33.5 |
|
312 |
80 |
232 |
308 |
49 |
259 |
| 10/20/02 |
TB 10 - PHI 20 |
PHI -3 |
U 36.5 |
|
269 |
159 |
110 |
207 |
81 |
126 |
| 01/12/02 |
TB 9 - PHI 31 |
PHI -3.5 |
O 33 |
|
334 |
148 |
186 |
258 |
63 |
195 |
| 01/06/02 |
PHI 17 - TB 13 |
PHI 4 |
U 33 |
|
296 |
111 |
185 |
236 |
71 |
165 |
| 12/31/00 |
TB 3 - PHI 21 |
PHI 3 |
U 33 |
|
277 |
126 |
151 |
199 |
50 |
149 |
| 09/19/99 |
TB 19 - PHI 5 |
TB -7 |
U 35.5 |
|
150 |
84 |
66 |
220 |
156 |
64 |
| 09/03/95 |
TB 21 - PHI 6 |
TB 6.5 |
U 39 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Denver Broncos
Point Spread: Denver -7 Over/Under 50 (December 2nd 2012)
Week 13 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 13. Broncos are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 home games. Broncos are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December. Buccaneers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 13. Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 18-4 in Broncos last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers last 8 games overall. Over is 7-1 in Buccaneers last 8 road games. Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games on grass.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Buccaneers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Underdog is 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Road team is 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
| DENVER LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/25/12 |
@KC |
W 17-9 |
L -10 |
U 41.5 |
|
104 |
-53 |
157 |
1.4 |
-0.8 |
2.9 |
| 11/18/12 |
SD |
W 30-23 |
L -7.5 |
O 47.5 |
|
109 |
80 |
29 |
1.4 |
3.0 |
0.4 |
| 11/11/12 |
@CAR |
W 36-14 |
W -3.5 |
O 46.5 |
|
110 |
13 |
97 |
1.6 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| 11/04/12 |
@CIN |
W 31-23 |
W -5 |
O 47.5 |
|
-7 |
-23 |
16 |
0.4 |
-1.0 |
1.8 |
| 10/28/12 |
NO |
W 34-14 |
W -6 |
U 55 |
|
278 |
174 |
104 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
| TAMPA BAY LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/25/12 |
ATL |
L 23-24 |
P 1 |
U 50.5 |
|
-98 |
-29 |
-69 |
-1.3 |
-0.9 |
-1.9 |
| 11/18/12 |
@CAR |
W 27-21 x |
W -1 |
O 46 |
|
72 |
70 |
2 |
0.0 |
2.7 |
-2.9 |
| 11/11/12 |
SD |
W 34-24 |
W -3 |
O 46.5 |
|
-147 |
-29 |
-118 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
1.5 |
| 11/04/12 |
@OAK |
W 42-32 |
W 1 |
O 47 |
|
91 |
256 |
-165 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
| 10/25/12 |
@MIN |
W 36-17 |
W 5.5 |
O 43 |
|
47 |
19 |
28 |
-1.2 |
-2.8 |
0.6 |
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Week 12 NFL Picks: November 25th 2012
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons -1
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The Falcons were able to escape last Sunday’s game against Arizona with a 23-19 victory. The win improved Atlanta to 9-1 on the season and it got them back on track after a disappointing 27-31 loss at New Orleans in Week 10. As many of you know, the Falcons weren’t even close to covering the 10-point spread in that game. Atlanta has now failed to cover the number in two straight games, which has me thinking they are showing some value as a small favorite.
Atlanta has been outstanding in close games this season. Six of their nine wins this year have come by 6-points or less. Given how well Tampa Bay has played of late, you would expect a very close game on Sunday. Hard to not like the team that continues to find ways to pull out a W late in games. The Buccaneers are just 2-4 in games that have been decided by 7 points or less.
I personally think the Buccaneers are a little overrated right now. The only team they have beat this season with a winning record is Minnesota, which certainly backs that up. This is a big game for Atlanta. They can pretty much lock up the division with a win this week. They would have a four-game lead with five to play. I expect the Falcons absolute best on Sunday, especially after how bad they looked last week against Arizona. BET ATLANTA!
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Point Spread: Atlanta -1 Over/Under 50 (November 25th 2012)
Week 12 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Buccaneers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Falcons are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers last 7 games overall. Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a S.U. win. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 home games. Over is 6-0 in Buccaneers last 6 games on grass. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 vs. NFC. Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 vs. NFC South. Under is 8-1 in Falcons last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 games in November. Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 games in Week 12.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
ATLANTA |
TAMPA BAY |
| DATE |
AWAY/HOME |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 01/01/12 |
TB 24 - ATL 45 |
ATL -10 |
O 45.5 |
|
428 |
251 |
177 |
294 |
35 |
259 |
| 09/25/11 |
ATL 13 - TB 16 |
TB -1 |
U 46 |
|
325 |
30 |
295 |
295 |
115 |
180 |
| 12/05/10 |
ATL 28 - TB 24 |
ATL -3 |
O 43.5 |
|
290 |
85 |
205 |
325 |
151 |
174 |
| 11/07/10 |
TB 21 - ATL 27 |
TB 10 |
O 44.5 |
|
365 |
130 |
235 |
278 |
96 |
182 |
| 01/03/10 |
ATL 20 - TB 10 |
ATL -1 |
U 41.5 |
|
397 |
183 |
214 |
206 |
40 |
166 |
| 11/29/09 |
TB 17 - ATL 20 |
TB 12 |
U 46 |
|
297 |
75 |
222 |
318 |
73 |
245 |
| 12/14/08 |
TB 10 - ATL 13 x |
TB 5.5 |
U 43.5 |
|
373 |
175 |
198 |
325 |
99 |
226 |
| 09/14/08 |
ATL 9 - TB 24 |
TB -7 |
U 37.5 |
|
234 |
105 |
129 |
311 |
164 |
147 |
| 12/16/07 |
ATL 3 - TB 37 |
TB -12.5 |
O 37.5 |
|
133 |
106 |
27 |
285 |
190 |
95 |
| 11/18/07 |
TB 31 - ATL 7 |
TB -3 |
O 35.5 |
|
265 |
49 |
216 |
305 |
149 |
156 |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -1 Over/Under 48 (November 18th 2012)
Week 11 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Panthers are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 11. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 9-1-1 in Panthers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 vs. NFC South. Over is 5-1-1 in Panthers last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Over is 9-2 in Panthers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Under is 8-2 in Panthers last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Over is 6-0 in Buccaneers last 6 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games following a S.U. win. Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games on grass. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games following a ATS win. Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Carolina. Buccaneers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Carolina.
| CAROLINA LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/11/12 |
DEN |
L 14-36 |
L 3.5 |
O 46.5 |
|
-110 |
-13 |
-97 |
-1.6 |
-0.5 |
-2.3 |
| 11/04/12 |
@WAS |
W 21-13 |
W 3 |
U 48 |
|
-7 |
-22 |
15 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
4.0 |
| 10/28/12 |
@CHI |
L 22-23 |
W 8.5 |
O 42 |
|
206 |
40 |
166 |
1.1 |
-0.9 |
2.9 |
| 10/21/12 |
DAL |
L 14-19 |
L 1 |
U 45 |
|
16 |
27 |
-11 |
0.9 |
2.6 |
-0.8 |
| 10/07/12 |
SEA |
L 12-16 |
L -1 |
U 42.5 |
|
-120 |
-16 |
-104 |
-1.2 |
1.5 |
-4.8 |
| TAMPA BAY LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/11/12 |
SD |
W 34-24 |
W -3 |
O 46.5 |
|
-147 |
-29 |
-118 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
1.5 |
| 11/04/12 |
@OAK |
W 42-32 |
W 1 |
O 47 |
|
91 |
256 |
-165 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
| 10/25/12 |
@MIN |
W 36-17 |
W 5.5 |
O 43 |
|
47 |
19 |
28 |
-1.2 |
-2.8 |
0.6 |
| 10/21/12 |
NO |
L 28-35 |
L 1 |
O 49.5 |
|
55 |
21 |
34 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
-0.4 |
| 10/14/12 |
KC |
W 38-10 |
W -5 |
O 39.5 |
|
203 |
65 |
138 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
7.5 |
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Week 10 NFL Picks: November 11th 2012
San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Pick: San Diego Chargers +3
CLICK HERE FOR STEVE JANUS’ PREMIUM WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
The Chargers were able to put an end to their three-game losing streak with a 31-13 win at home over division rival Kansas City. The Chargers are no longer the team to beat in the AFC West and many people have already written this team off. I’m not one of them. I still we have yet to see this team play their best football and November and December is typically the time of the year where they turn it on.
If San Diego gets another performance out of Phillip Rivers like they did in their last game against the Chiefs, there’s no reason to think they can’t go on the road and beat Tampa Bay. Rivers went 18 of 20 for 22 yards and two touchdowns. He figures to have every opportunity to light up a very bad Tampa Bay secondary. While the Buccaneers are holding opponents to a league-low 77.3 ypg on the ground, they are dead last in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 321.1 ypg. This past week they allowed Oakland’s Carson Palmer to throw for 414 yards and four touchdowns.
The thing that so many people overlook because of San Diego’s poor start to the season, is just how good this team is playing defensively. The Chargers are giving up just 321.8 total yards/game, which is the 9th best mark in the entire NFL. So much is being made about Tampa Bay’s running game, but the Chargers are only giving up 84.0 ypg on the ground and have only allowed more than 120 yards in one game all season.
I think a lot of people are looking at how well the Buccaneers have played over their last four games and not taking into consideration that those three wins have come against the Chiefs, Vikings and Raiders. Prior to the season the Chargers were listed as a 3-point favorite in this game. The Chargers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs excellent offensive teams – averaging >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season under head coach Norv Turner. Tampa Bay has also been a good team to fade at home, as they are just 8-23 ATS over their last 31 games at Raymond James Stadium. BET THE CHARGERS!
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San Diego Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Point Spread: Tampa Bay -3 Over/Under 47 (November 11th 2012)
Week 10 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Buccaneers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Buccaneers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games in November. Chargers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on grass. Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last 5 games overall. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games on grass. Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games following a S.U. win. Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall. Under is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 34-15-4 in Chargers last 53 road games. Over is 13-6-1 in Chargers last 20 games following a ATS win.
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Head-to-Head Trends:
No Trends
| TAMPA BAY LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/04/12 |
@OAK |
W 42-32 |
W 1 |
O 47 |
|
91 |
256 |
-165 |
2.5 |
6.7 |
1.4 |
| 10/25/12 |
@MIN |
W 36-17 |
W 5.5 |
O 43 |
|
47 |
19 |
28 |
-1.2 |
-2.8 |
0.6 |
| 10/21/12 |
NO |
L 28-35 |
L 1 |
O 49.5 |
|
55 |
21 |
34 |
0.5 |
1.1 |
-0.4 |
| 10/14/12 |
KC |
W 38-10 |
W -5 |
O 39.5 |
|
203 |
65 |
138 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
7.5 |
| 09/30/12 |
WAS |
L 22-24 |
L -1.5 |
O 44.5 |
|
-101 |
-73 |
-28 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
-1.7 |
| SAN DIEGO LAST 5 | SEASON | REMAINING |
YARDS |
PER PLAY |
| DATE |
VS. |
SCORE |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 11/01/12 |
KC |
W 31-13 |
W -7.5 |
O 41 |
|
50 |
10 |
40 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
4.7 |
| 10/28/12 |
@CLE |
L 6-7 |
L -3 |
U 41 |
|
15 |
-16 |
31 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
| 10/15/12 |
DEN |
L 24-35 |
L -1 |
O 47.5 |
|
-59 |
33 |
-92 |
-2.5 |
0.7 |
-5.0 |
| 10/07/12 |
@NO |
L 24-31 |
L 3.5 |
O 52.5 |
|
23 |
64 |
-41 |
1.0 |
4.0 |
-0.4 |
| 09/30/12 |
@KC |
W 37-20 |
W -1 |
O 43 |
|
-56 |
-11 |
-45 |
-0.3 |
-2.2 |
2.6 |
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Oakland Raiders
Point Spread: Oakland -1 Over/Under 46 (November 4th 2012)
Week 9 NFL Picks: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S PREMIUM PICKS
ATS Trends:
Raiders are 18-39-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 9. Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Buccaneers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Buccaneers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
Over/Under Trends:
Over is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 home games. Over is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games following a ATS win. Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games in November. Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games overall. Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 road games. Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a S.U. win. Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games on grass.
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CLICK HERE FOR THE TAMPA BAY BUCS VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS WINNING PICK
Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
| RECENT MEETINGS |
TAMPA BAY |
OAKLAND |
| DATE |
AWAY/HOME |
LINE |
O/U |
|
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
TOT |
RUSH |
PASS |
| 12/28/08 |
OAK 31 - TB 24 |
OAK 11 |
O 39 |
|
380 |
125 |
255 |
337 |
192 |
145 |
| 09/26/04 |
TB 20 - OAK 30 |
OAK -4 |
O 34.5 |
|
389 |
92 |
297 |
399 |
173 |
226 |
| 01/26/03 |
OAK 21 - TB 48 |
TB 3.5 |
O 44 |
|
365 |
150 |
215 |
269 |
19 |
250 |
| 12/19/99 |
TB 0 - OAK 45 |
OAK -1.5 |
O 36 |
|
137 |
34 |
103 |
400 |
262 |
138 |
| 11/10/96 |
OAK 17 - TB 20 |
TB 5 |
P 37 |
|
339 |
162 |
177 |
271 |
89 |
182 |
| 12/19/93 |
TB 20 - OAK 27 |
TB 9 |
O 37 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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