Free MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-105)
Sun May 18 ‘08 2:15p
The Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals have split the first two games of this series, but we look for the Rays to take this rubber match with the hot Edwin Jackson on the mound. - Click Here for Current MLB Betting Odds

Tampa Bay has been criticized in recent years for continually pitching Jackson every five days and watching him get rocked, but to their credit, their patience with him is bearing fruit this season. Jackson may be just 2-3 personally, but he has a nice 3.47 ERA in 49.1 innings, and the Rays as a team are 5-3 in his starts. Most importantly, he has allowed one run or less in five of his starts, and he is working on an impressive streak of 15 consecutive scoreless innings over his last two outings, allowing just 11 hits in the process.

Also, this will be Jackson’s first career start vs. the Cardinals, so he should be doubly tough on a Cardinals lineup that has never faced him before. If he is in need of relief for whatever reason, he has the support of a Tampa Bay bullpen that ranks third in the American League with a 3.17 ERA, making the Rays one of our Bullpen System plays here. This system is now 39-37, +5.07 units so far this year after averaging +97 units the last three seasons.

The Cardinals are starting Kyle Lohse, who has regressed quickly after an abnormally great start to the season. Lohse allowed two runs or less in five of his first six starts, but he is now returning to his normal level with a bloated 10.06 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three outings. Also, the St. Louis bullpen has been anything but reliable which it proved again yesterday. The Cardinals have a bullpen ERA of 4.33, ranking 24th in the league.

The Rays are still 8-2 in their last 10 games even with yesterday’s loss, and we look for them to get back on the winning track behind Jackson and the pen this afternoon.

MLB Free Pick: Rays -105