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Orlando @ Detroit
The Magic went 27-14 SU on the road this year, the second best road record in the entire NBA. They covered the spread at a 66% clip on the highway, finishing the regular season as the second best ATS team in the league. They proved their ability to win tight games in pressure packed situations in hostile environments, outscoring Toronto 12-2 down the stretch of their crucial Game 4 win against the Raptors. And, with all apologies to LeBron James, Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant, Orlando’s Dwight Howard has arguably been the single most unstoppable force so far in the postseason. The Magic blew out the Pistons in their most recent meeting at Detroit, a 103-85 domination right after the All Star break, and the road team has covered the spread at a 15-5-3 clip over the last 23 meetings between these two teams. Orlando is also the more rested squad – Detroit played on Thursday, needing six games to close out the 76ers, while the Magic eliminated Toronto in five games, resting since their clincher on Monday. But the playoff tested Pistons swept this same Orlando team out of the playoffs last year. And, when it comes to playoff level defensive intensity, the Pistons enjoy an enormous edge, holding defensive matchup advantages at nearly every position.

New Orleans @ San Antonio
It’s hard to assess which team holds the most value here, as both of these squads have been making piles of money for those who supported them. The defending champs have now won four of their last five road games in the postseason and nine of their last twelve on the highway dating back to last season. In fact, San Antonio is now 19-5 SU, 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 playoff games, the single most undervalued team in the postseason betting marketplace. But no NBA team has been more undervalued than the New Orleans Hornets in 2008. Byron Scott’s squad is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games; 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games overall, an extended run of pointspread excellence. The two teams split their four regular season meetings, with each team winning and covering once at home and once on their opponent’s home floor. Even the series price tells us to expect an extremely competitive series of games, with lower seeded San Antonio only the slightest of favorites at -130.

Atlanta @ Boston
If the old adage about a playoff series not really beginning until the road team wins a game is true, this playoff series hasn’t begun yet. Obviously, that’s not the case, as the single biggest favorite in the first round is the only first round series to reach a Game 7. That’s great for TV ratings, bad for the Celtics. Boston was an 80-1 favorite prior to the start of the series; higher than that following their first two blowout wins at home. And despite being unable to win a game in Atlanta, the Celtics are still prohibitive favorites to win Game 7 – they’ve dominated all three previous home games, winning by an average margin of 22 points per game, covering the spread in all three tries. That being said, the Celtics can’t be comfortable with any lead, having blown double digit leads twice in the last three games; losers of three of the last four in the series. And the upstart Hawks have no pressure here since nobody expects them to win – all the pressure to succeed is on the home team with the best regular season record in the league. But let’s not forget how one sided all three previous games at Boston have been in this series – the Celtics outscored the Hawks in every single quarter of those contests!

Utah @ Los Angeles
The Jazz have less than 48 hours of turnaround time following their Game 6 victory over Houston to get prepared for the Lakers. That stands in sharp contrast with LA, the only team to pull off a first round sweep, winning and covering the spread in all four games against the Nuggets, then enjoying the benefits of a full five day layoff. The Lakers won and covered the spread in three of the four regular season meetings between these two teams, earning double digit victories in both home games against the Jazz: 119-109 and 123-109, each game flying Over the total. Don’t put too much emphasis on those regular season games, however – three of the four meetings between the two teams came in the first two months of the season, when Utah was playing mediocre basketball, going 16-16 SU in their first 32 games of the season, before the trade for key reserve Kyle Korver seemed to spark their season. LA was a sub .500 team against the spread at home this year, while Utah’s road struggles have been well documented: 17-24 ATS on the highway during the regular season, although they did win and cover two out of three at Houston in the first round.