NBA PLAYOFFS WEEKEND PREVIEW: Article Courtesy of Ted Sevranksy, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com - Click Here to Purchase Ted’s Expert NBA Betting Picks

Detroit @ Orlando (Magic -5, O/U 187)
The biggest storyline for Game 4 of the Pistons-Magic series concerns the injury to Detroit point guard Chauncey Billups. Billups went down with a strained right hamstring early in the first quarter of Game 3 and didn’t return. The Magic took immediate advantage of his absence, going on an 18-4 run to take an 18 point lead that they would never relinquish.

Reports on Friday indicate that Billups is expected to suit up and play for the Pistons on Saturday, but his effectiveness is another matter entirely. Head coach Flip Saunders: “I’m concerned because (Billups is) our quarterback; he runs our team. You saw our first two games. He’s been a huge part of why we’ve been successful—that matchup has been huge for us.”

Without Billups to defend, Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson enjoyed one of his best games of the postseason, spurring the Magic offense to 111 points on 53% shooting. Billups backup, rookie Rodney Stuckey, had a decent offensive game, but he was able to keep Nelson out of the paint, driving and dishing to open teammates.

The Magic had lost nine straight in the playoffs against the Pistons prior to Wednesday’s victory. Orlando center Dwight Howard: “It felt real good, finally getting a chance to beat those guys. The main thing is we played the way we know how to play—run and try to cut the turnovers down. We can beat anybody.”

Boston @ Cleveland (Cavs -1.5, O/U 176)
The Boston Celtics were the best team in the NBA during the regular season in large part due to their defense. The numbers don’t lie. The Celtics ranked #1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage allowed by a wide margin, holding foes to 42% shooting for the season – far better than the defensive minded Spurs, Pistons and Rockets.

Boston was equally adept at shutting down opposing teams from the perimeter, holding foes to a 31.6 shooting percentage from beyond the arc, also best in the NBA by a wide margin. Kevin Garnett won the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award in a landslide vote, and KG’s defensive intensity has certainly carried over to his teammates. When a team doesn’t give up fast break baskets, perimeter jumpers or points in the paint out of halfcourt sets, it makes them a very difficult team to beat.

Cleveland found that out the hard way in Games 1 and 2. The Cavs scored only 72 points in the first game of this series, held to 31% shooting. In Game 2, they improved: 73 total points scored on 36% shooting. The Cavs didn’t hit much from the perimeter, just 6-31 from three point range. And most important of all, Cleveland’s ‘Big One’ (in sharp contrast to the Celtics ‘Big Three’) was completely stymied by the Celtics defensive approach, hitting just 8 of his 42 shot attempts in the first two games of the series, while committing 17 turnovers.

We’ve seen one team after the next return home facing an 0-2 deficit and respond with their best game of the series: San Antonio, Utah and Orlando already here in Round 2; Toronto, Dallas and Atlanta in the first round. The Celtics are 0-3 SU and ATS in their three previous road games here in the playoffs, losing all three games at Atlanta by a combined 42.5 points against the spread.

New Orleans @ San Antonio (Spurs -6, O/U 186)
The Spurs completely changed their gameplan against the Hornets for Game 3 after losing the first two games of the series in blowout fashion at New Orleans. San Antonio head coach Greg Popovich changed his defensive gameplan, putting shutdown defender Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic instead of Chris Paul. The result: Paul had another huge game — 35 points, nine assists – but the contributions of the Hornets supporting cast were minimized.

At the offensive end, Popovich started Manu Ginobili, who normally comes off the bench. He also instructed Tony Parker to be more aggressive in transition, taking the ball to the basket with authority. The result? 62 points and 17 assists for the duo, by far their best games of the series.

Popovich: “We made shots, and we made better decisions. They only had [six] points off turnovers instead of the 22 they’ve been averaging. We had 28 assists, which is great, so if you can get 28 assists and not make turnovers, that makes your offense look a whole hell of a lot better…..I probably got [Parker] all screwed up [in Games 1 and 2] trying to get him to make perfect decisions. We know he’s better when he’s aggressive and trying to score. That’s the approach he took.”

For Game 4, we have to wonder if San Antonio is going to be capable of playing as well as they did in their last outing. Manu Ginobili, following Thursday’s win: “Tonight was like a Game 7 for us.” We’ve already seen the Hornets bounce back from a bad road loss in Game 3 of their series against Dallas with a resounding Game 4 victory. And let’s not forget that the Hornets were one of the strongest teams in the NBA on the road this season, 25-16 ATS, including a 24 point blowout over the Spurs in San Antonio back in January.

LA Lakers @ Utah (Jazz -5, O/U 210.5)
The Lakers are a tough team to bet against as underdogs in Game 4. LA is 6-1 SU and ATS here in the playoffs. They were one of the four teams to beat the Jazz in Salt Lake City during the regular season; the only team to do it after the All Star break. The Lakers were the single best road team in the NBA against the spread during the regular season, and they won and covered both first round games at Denver. To top it off, LA is on a 13-3 ATS run as underdogs of six points or less, consistently cashing in this role.

But Utah is not an easy team to fade here either. The Jazz were an NBA best 37-4 at Energy Solutions Arena during the regular season, and they beat the Rockets twice on this floor in their first round series. Utah has legitimate matchup edges over the Lake-show in the paint – they’ll continue to win the battle of the boards, and get easy second chance opportunities off the offensive glass, just as they have in the first three games of this series. Carlos Boozer was able to avoid foul trouble in the Jazz Game 3 victory, pacing the team with 27 points and 20 boards, while maintaining a physical presence in the paint that LA simply doesn’t have without the injured Andrew Bynum.

Here are some pertinent quotes following the Jazz Game 3 win. Jazz point guard Deron Williams: “It was just a solid game for us tonight. We pushed the ball in transition and got some easy things going. Guys were hitting shots and our confidence kept carrying over.” NBA MVP Kobe Bryant, following the loss: “We clawed back but you can’t turn the ball over so many times. We had a lot of open looks and you can sustain a game like that if you don’t turn the ball over.” Kobe’s teammate, Lamar Odom: “This team is good enough for us to lose to and we have to understand that and play our best game at all times. We could have lost to anyone playing like that.” Lakers coach Phil Jackson: “I told the guys they made a good comeback but they just couldn’t make the plays at the end.”

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