Texas vs. Missouri
Free Pick: Missouri +13 -110 betting odds - point spreads
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Saturday’s win over Oklahoma was big one for Texas obviously but it was very unimpressive in my opinion. Oklahoma has a solid defense no doubt but Texas could do nothing on offense and mistakes were the issue. Heisman candidate Colt McCoy certainly did not look it and he is no longer in the running after he threw another interception, making it seven this season. Putting that in perspective, through 13 games last season he only had eight picks total so he is definitely off this year. Coming off a big win like the one over the Sooners puts Texas in a tough spot as it can be in store for a letdown this week. Taking a look at last season shows the win over Oklahoma was followed by a 25-point win over Missouri but the difference is that last year, the game was at home against the Tigers. This is the first true road game for the Longhorns since September 12th so it has been five weeks and that game was in Wyoming which is hardly a tough environment. This is a big difference. Missouri is coming off a road loss at Oklahoma St. Saturday night in a game it pretty much should have won. It outgained the Cowboys by 42 total yards but turnovers ended up being the difference as Missouri has four including three interceptions by quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Despite those picks, Gabbert still have better overall numbers than McCoy as he has thrown for more yards, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions and a higher ypa average. He is third in the conference in total offense while McCoy enters fourth so while the difference isn’t big, Gabbert is having a solid season. While the offense is fine, the Tigers defense is not horrible as it is ranked 45th in the nation in total defense and 35th in scoring defense which are fourth and fifth respectively in the Big XII. The rushing defense is allowing just 3.6 ypc on the ground and while the Texas rushing offense comes across as strong, it is just above average. Texas is averaging 42 ppg which is tops in the nation but it is 41st in both rushing offense and passing efficiency offense so there really is not a while lot of consistency to the offense. The schedule has not had a lot to do with it as the Longhorns have played a schedule ranked 56th in the nation. That is not far ahead of the Tigers schedule that ranked 70th. On the other side, the Longhorns have the sixth ranked total defense and the first ranked rushing defense in the country but the passing defense is ranked just 50th. That may be considered skewed some based on the fact that teams have had to resort to passing based on trying to play catch up. The problem here is that is falls right into the strength of the Missouri offense so even a deficit means the possibility of a comeback and the backdoor is always left open. The key here for Missouri to have a shot at winning this game outright is turnovers and that is a battle it must win. Texas can get sloppy with the ball, as we all saw against Oklahoma, and the Tigers need to take advantage. Missouri is 16-7 ATS under head coach Gary Pinkel when facing teams that allow 310 or fewer ypg so he has been shown to have the ability to come up with strong offensive gameplans. Also, the Tigers are 13-3 ATS under Pinkel in home games following a road loss. We catch a great number at home in a game that Missouri should be able to keep close throughout. 3* Missouri Tigers