Week 12 NFL Opening Odds & Lines Report
NFL Football Picks November 20th, 2007CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 12 NFL ODDS, LINES & SCORES
by Stephen Nover of Covers Sports Handicappers
Parity is dead in the NFL. Doubt this? Then check out the Week 12 betting line.
There are two double-digit favorites on Thanksgiving, Dallas and Indianapolis. And they’re not even the biggest favorites on the board. That honor belongs to New England and Pittsburgh.
Even the Arizona Cardinals were a solid 10 ½-point favorites on Monday morning, hosting San Francisco.
If A.J. Feeley starts instead of Donovan McNabb for Philadelphia, the Eagles would be whopping 22-point road underdogs against the Patriots, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior oddsmaker Mike Seba. He said the Patriots would open at -18 if McNabb is behind center.
“Philadelphia is just an average team,” Seba said.
The Eagles aren’t helped by the matchup being nationally televised on Sunday night based on the way warped Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been having his team run up scores.
“It’s just going to be another example of New England exhibiting its dominance,” Seba said.
Pittsburgh is -16 hosting winless Miami on Monday night. Don’t be surprised if that number closes even higher.
“I suppose it would close 16 ½,” Seba said. “I just don’t feel comfortable making them that high of a favorite. The Steelers are very good, but I don’t think they’re the kind of team that covers big numbers.
“The Dolphins are playing hard. I do think (John) Beck is going to be better than Cleo Lemon.”
Half of Miami’s losses this season have been by three points. The Dolphins should have lost to the Eagles by a field goal this past Sunday if not for a botched series at the goal line.
San Diego could make it six double-digit favorites this week. The Chargers were as high as -9 ½ hosting Baltimore at some books on Monday morning. The Ravens have covered one game all year. They lost to Cleveland in overtime this past Sunday, 33-30.
“It has to take the heart out of you when you finally play a good game like the Ravens did and then lose at the end,” Seba said.
The Chargers are off a road loss to Jacksonville, where they had to travel cross-country and play at an earlier time than they were used to.
“It’s a bounce-back game for San Diego,” Seba said.
Don’t look for the Cardinals’ number to drop. It very well could reach -11. Recreational bettors don’t mind backing a team with a good offense and bad defense such as Cincinnati. But they are extremely reluctant to take an underdog with a decent defense and horrendous offense like San Francisco.
The 49ers are averaging 8 ½ points in their last seven games.
“It doesn’t matter if it’s Alex Smith or Trent Dilfer,” Seba said. “It’s a big number for Arizona to cover, but I can’t see it going below 10.”
The last time the Cardinals were this big of a favorite was against the 49ers on opening week of last season.
Until Minnesota beat Oakland at home last Sunday, it was looking like the New York Giants might also be a double-digit favorite hosting the Vikings.
The Las Vegas Hilton actually opened the Giants -10 on its early line, which they put out a week ahead of time. But after the Vikings showed they could win without Adrian Peterson and the Giants suffered a couple of injuries in beating Detroit, the line opened New York -7 ½.
“If it’s seven I would lay it,” Seba said. “If it’s 7 ½ then I would have to think about it.”
Oddsmakers were short in recommending an opening line of pick or New Orleans -1 in the Saints-Panthers matchup. The Saints were -3 on Monday morning.
Carolina has lost its last six home games by the combined margin of 169-64. The Panthers’ top quarterback is 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde.
“Until the Panthers show something, you have to keep playing against them,” Seba said. “I just don’t see (backing) the Panthers. They have more problems than just the quarterback.”
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