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Week 13 NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: December 2nd 2012

Week 13 NFL Picks: December 2nd 2012
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: New England Patriots -7.5
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The Patriots have it going. They have won five straight by an average of 22.4 points. Three of these wins came by 30 points or more.

New England has been an outstanding investment on the road for years. It it 37-17-2 against the spread in its last 56 road games. Zooming in, it is on a 15-5 against the spread run in games played away from home and has won these by an average score of 33.4 to 21.9. The Pats are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season.

While New England has been a strong play on the road, the Dolphins have been a poor investment at home. They are just 23-52-1 against the spread in their last 76 home games.

Miami is coming off a 24-21 upset win at home against the Seattle Seahawks, but it is on an 18-37 against the spread slide following an upset win. It is also on a 10-22 against the spread skid in home games after a win by six points or less.

It is significant that the Dolphins enter with a .454 winning percentage. That’s because the Pats are 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons versus teams that carry winning percentages of .400 to .490. They have won these six by an average score of 42.2 to 12.8.

The Patriots have won each of their last four games against the Dolphins and three of these wins have come by 14 points or more. The road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, and the Patriots are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings at Miami.

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