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The days of opening the New England Patriots higher than 24-point favorites have ended. Oddsmakers can’t do it anymore because of weather concerns.

Bookmakers were burned last Sunday when the Patriots were bet down to 20 ½ against the New York Jets and won only by the modest score of 20-10.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that New England opened as just 21 ½-point home favorites against the NFL’s worst team, Miami.

“If the weather is good – 40 degrees, 5-10 mph winds – than New England could easily win by 30 points,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

The problem for oddsmakers is making a line a week ahead of time. If the weather in New England is like it was on Sunday then the Dolphins could stay within three touchdowns despite being a warm-weather team.

Tom Brady and Randy Moss had their worst games battling the Jets in heavy winds and cold temperatures. Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season. Moss didn’t score a touchdown for only the third time this year.

Oddsmakers would rather err on the high side with New England. They are anticipating public money to be on the Patriots. But the Patriots have failed to cover in three of their last four games, beating Philadelphia and Baltimore by only three points to go along with their 10-point Jets victory.

“We would rather be rooting for the Patriots, but not setting a line on them that is too out of whack,” Seba said. “During the first eight games it seems we couldn’t make a line high enough on them. But during these past few weeks they’ve struggled nearly every time.”

Seba is more confident making the New Orleans Saints a 3-point home favorite against Philadelphia with each team in a must-win spot.

“The Saints -3 is a perfect number,” he said. “You can’t make it 3 ½ or 2 ½.”

The line may be headed to 3 ½, however. Most places had the Saints at -3 at higher juice of anywhere from -115 to -125.

“If it goes to 3 ½, I think Philadelphia is an automatic take,” said Seba, who rates the Eagles ahead of the Saints in his power rankings.

LVSC sent out the New York Giants as a pick against the Buffalo Bills. The offshores opened the Bills as 3-point home underdogs. That’s where the line stood on Monday.

“After the way the Giants played against the Redskins and losing Jeremy Shockey, I can’t make them a favorite,” Seba said. “If Buffalo shows up to play, I think pick is the right number.”

The Giants, though, need this game after failing to clinch a playoff spot by losing to Washington. The Giants finish their season on the road against the undefeated Patriots.

Cleveland is a 3-point road favorite against Cincinnati. LVSC’s send-out was Browns -3 ½.

“Cleveland needs this game and Cincinnati pretty much has given up,” Seba said. “We made the send-out higher (than the opening number) because I think Cincinnati is done. But you have to consider weather.”

Bookmakers are especially cautious about weather following Week 15. There was bad weather in four games – Buffalo-Cleveland, Jacksonville-Pittsburgh, New York Jets-New England and Washington-New York Giants. The underdog covered in three of the four. Three of the four also went under the total.

The Bills and Browns played in a blizzard and scored only eight points between them.

Another tricky situation for oddsmakers to deal with is teams that already have clinched and locked into their playoff spot. The prime example for Week 16 is the Indianapolis Colts, a team that will be hosting the Houston Texans.

Seba said if the Colts would have needed this game, they would be two-touchdown favorites. Instead Indianapolis was just a 7-point favorite. Oddsmakers aren’t sure how many series Peyton Manning and the other first-stringers will play.

The line could go up or down depending on what Tony Dungy decides to do and when that information becomes public.

Courtesy of Stephen Nover of Covers Sports Handicappers

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