Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Arena Football Betting Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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Favorite bettors in the AFL suffered an absolute disaster this past weekend. While the favorites were 7-1 straight up, with only the underdog Colorado Crush winning outright, the underdogs were a perfect 8-0 against the spread. All eight games were decided in the final minute, with five of the eight outcomes not determined until the final ten seconds of the game. Five games were determined after a failed on-side kick, two by a failed fourth down pass and one by a last second missed field goal. If you were looking for excitement and competitive games, the AFL certainly suited your needs this past weekend.

It’s extremely rare to see favorites win seven of eight games in straight up fashion, but lose all eight against the spread. All seven games where the favorite won but didn’t cover were decided by three points or less. In a league where the winning team covers the spread at an 80%+ clip, the results this past weekend were a significant change from the long term history of the league.

As the regular season ends this weekend, there are eight teams battling for six playoff spots – three seeds available for the taking in each conference. In the American Conference four teams with 5-10 records (the Utah Blaze, LA Avengers, Grand Rapids Rampage and Colorado Crush) will battle for the three playoff spots, with one of the four teams earning a home playoff game. In league history, there has never been a team with losing records that has hosted a playoff game. One of the four teams listed above will host a playoff game next week with (at best) a 6-10 record. Since 1995, there had been just five teams with losing records to reach the post-season but there will be three that earn that dubious achievement in 2008.

One of the biggest in-season turnarounds this year came from the Georgia Force. Georgia wrapped up a third division title in four years this past weekend with a nailbiting win over Chicago. Remember, Georgia went 14-2 last year, clinching their division title midseason. This year, however, after losing two thirds of their superstar receiving trio when Derek Lee when to Columbus and Chris Jackson went to Philadelphia in the offseason, the Force stumbled out the gate, losing five of their first eight.

Georgia head coach Doug Plank: “I’ve never had so many people question my ability to coach before. It was a difficult time for us, but we just had to keep doing what we felt was right to put our team in a position to win.” Plank’s patience paid off, as Georgia reeled off seven straight wins to win the division, winning outright as underdogs on four separate occasions during that span. This week’s game at San Jose is meaningless for the Force, but Plank is reportedly not going to be resting starters with a bye week on tap. “Everyone will play, I won’t sacrifice this momentum.”

The Chicago Rush have tanked down the stretch, losing three of their last four, including the loss at Georgia this past weekend. Their lone win during this span came in a near-upset by lowly Kansas City as the Rush needed to rally from a double digit fourth quarter deficit as two touchdown favorites. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they’ve suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the football. All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo ruptured his right biceps tendon, placed on injured reserve prior to last week’s game. His backup, Ryan Dennard started against Georgia but left the game with an injury after the first series forcing LB Liam Ezekiel into extensive action.

Alfonzo’s injury is a devastating one. Head coach Mike Hohensee: “It’s a tremendous loss for the team. And I know nobody is more upset right now than ‘Zo. He is a great competitor and no one in the league plays the Jack linebacker position the way he does. However, we believe we have enough talent and depth to overcome his loss and make a run at another championship.”

The playoff scenario going into the final two weeks of the 2008 regular season for the Colorado Crush was simple: win twice and you’re in. Colorado had suffered a devastating injury blow of their own, when star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens torn his ACL, joining another speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt on injured reserve. On Monday night the Crush took care of part one of their playoff scenario, blowing most of a four touchdown lead at Arizona but hanging on for the win.

With co-owner John Elway making headlines this past week by discussing the possibility of folding the franchise and/or completely tearing apart the team in the offseason, the Crush needed a strong performance and they got one. Head coach Mike Dailey: “We have had trouble getting bounces to go our way this season, but tonight we got a couple balls on turnovers that we were able to convert into points.” Defensive back Rashad Floyd, talking about their mindset against Kansas City this week: “We were in a do or die position and we were able to get the job done (last week).”

I don’t know why head coaches lie to the media and their own players, but it cost us a bet last week. Columbus Destroyers head coach Doug Kay told his team and the local beat writer that he would be giving backup quarterback Justin Zwick “extensive” playing time. With the Destroyers trailing by two scores and the crowd chanting for the former Ohio State hero (“We Want Zwick”), Kay gave Zwick exactly one play under center for the entire game. Zwick: “I thought I was going to play a lot more.”

Kay made no apologies for his outright lie: “We felt that Matt (Nagy) had to control the football game based on the way the situation was going. Justin Zwick wasn’t put in the game to control the game. He was put in the game so we could get some idea (of him in game conditions) and so that he could get some idea.” I guess one play from scrimmage was enough for the 3-12 Destroyers to evaluate Zwick’s capabilities. We’ll have to see whether he gets more playing time this week in the Destroyers season finale at Cleveland.

I’ll be back with a second AFL article before the weekend, outlining each team’s respective playoff scenarios for Week 17.