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Miami Dolphins +3.0 (-110) - Sunday October 12th ‘08 1:00p
The Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans are certainly entering this game with different mindsets, as Miami is oozing confidence after upsetting the New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers in consecutive games while the Texans are reeling from their late collapse vs. the Indianapolis Colts to fall to 0-4. Granted, Matt Shaub should be back at quarterback for Houston after Sage Rosenfels singlehandedly gave the that Colts game away, fumbling twice in the last five minutes to help Indianapolis overcome a 27-10 deficit. However, Shaub may be sick to his stomach again soon after this game starts, as the Dolphins have recorded 12 sacks this season and should be able to take advantage of what is still a suspect Texans offensive line. One way to slow down the Miami pass rush would be with an effective running game, but Houston lacks that right now despite a decent performance vs. a horrible Colts run defense last week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have done a good job of controlling clock behind the running of Ronnie Brown the last two games, and we see no reason why they cannot have more success here vs. a Texans defense 32.5 points and 334.2 total yards per game. Quarterback Chad Pennington will not beat anyone deep, but he could be very effective off of play action here. The bottom line here is that the Dolphins are simply playing better football than Houston right now, and the fact that the Texans may been psychologically fragile right now is a nice added bonus. NFL Free Pick: Dolphins +3 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits

New York Jets -8.0 - Sun Oct 12 ‘08 1:00p
A late decision has Cincinnati’s top gun QB Carson Palmer sitting this one out because of a sore elbow. Without the catalyst of their offense leading the way, the pedestrian Bengal attack is in big trouble, and should spend a great deal of time on the sidelines today because of their inability to move the chains. This will result in a tired Bengal D, that could be easily taken advantage of as this game progresses. Meanwhile, the NY Jets enter into this home game, rested and prepared to perform off a bye week. The Jets behind future hall of fame QB Brett Favre , have had time to get the playbook down. With everything now working in sequence the Jets, are capable of another one sided win similar to the one they served up on the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago , all be it though in a lower scoring manner. Final notes & Key Trends: The Jets are 6-0 ATS L/6 following a bye week. Projected score: NY Jets 28 Cincinnati 10 - Courtesy of Alex Smart

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-110) - Sunday October 12th ‘08 4:05p
This is as close to a must-win game for the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the Denver Broncos as there can be at this relatively early stage of the year, while the Broncos have more of a comfort level with a two-game lead in the West. Jacksonville can ill afford to fall to 2-4 if they want any realistic chance of making the playoffs, and we feel they will have success vs. a bad Denver defense here, as we feel the Broncos performance vs. Tampa Bay last week was rather flukey. The Jaguars have had some offensive line problems, but they are luckily facing a weak Denver defensive front, so look for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew to have to have big games this week, very similar to when they faced another soft front in the Indianapolis Colts a few weeks ago. Now the Broncos were prolific offensively early this year, but they are coming off of back-to-back sub-par efforts. The fact that they have maintained a two-game lead in the division is a negative here, as there will really be no urgency to improve on those last two weeks here, Instead, Denver may have one eye on their marquee battle with the New England Patriots next week. The combination of a more desperate Jacksonville team and a poor Broncos defense should be enough for the Jaguars to pull the upset. NFL Free Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110) - Courtesy of LT Profits

Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-110) - Sun Oct 12 ‘08 1:00p
The Carolina Panthers head south this weekend for a NFC South tilt with the Buccaneers. Right now the Panthers are leading the division at 4-1, but the Bucs can even things up with a win as they are sitting in second place at 3-2. We are going to go with Carolina at +1.5 on Sunday. The Panthers appear to be running on all cylinders as they head into Tamp Bay and one of the great aspects of this team is their consistency. Jake Delhomme is about as steady a hand as there is in the league at quarterback, and the team’s play reflects that week to week. This will be a tough, grind it out game for a couple of reasons, the first being that these two teams mirror each other in many ways, and the second is the fact that it is a division battle. The Panthers typically come out on top in these kinds of games and their ability to make big plays with the passing game gives them the edge here. Brian Griese is questionable for Tampa and if Garcia has to replace him, who knows where his psyche is at. The Panthers will force one of these two to win the game as I look for them to shut down the Bucs ground attack. Carolina has yet to allow a 100 yard rusher all season and I do not seeing it happening Sunday. The Panthers are averaging 207 yards passing per game while the Bucs are yielding 218.6 per game. Delhomme should be able to move the chains with Steve Smith who has had some success against Tampa in the past. The Carolina running game will also keep the Bucs defense honest and take some heat off of Delhomme. John Fox’s team also has the advantage over the Bucs in both the turnover and time of possession categories. Things to consider: The Bucs are 1-4 against the spread versus Carolina as a home favorite. Carolina is 9-1 against the spread and 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games as a road underdog versus an NFC South opponent. The Panthers are 4-0 against the spread and straight up as a road dog versus an NFC South foe with a spread of 0 to 3.5. Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS as an away dog coming off back to back straight up wins. Free Pick: Take the Panthers +1.5 (-110) - Courtesy of Matt Foust

St. Louis Rams +14.0 - Sunday, October 12th ‘08 1:00p
Yes, the Redskins have won four straight games, including road upsets at Dallas and Philadelphia. But at no point in any of those four victories did the Redskins enjoy a two touchdown lead. The four victories were all decided in the fourth quarter, each coming by a touchdown or less. This is not an offense built for easy blowouts, nor does the obvious flat spot on their schedule following the two divisional road wins provide much fodder for the ‘blow out St Louis’ theory. And let’s not forget the absolute ineptitude of double digit favorites in the NFL this season. The league as a whole is a perfect 0-7 ATS when laying ten points or more. Speaking of ‘whole league’ angles, let’s not forget a key long term angle that supports a play on the Rams in this spot. Teams that are 0-4 SU or worse, coming off their bye week, as an underdog of six points or more are a truly phenomenal long term against the spread. They spend two weeks hearing about how much they stink – from friends, family, the local media – and then these winless teams off a bye tend to take out some of their frustrations upon their opponent. Throw in a coaching change in St Louis and we can clearly see that the Rams are poised for their single best showing of the season; a major step up for a team that has now lost eight consecutive games dating back to last year, the most recent seven defeats all coming by 17 points or more. With Marc Bulger back behind center for Jim Haslett’s squad here, look for the Rams to be competitive throughout, just as winless Cinci was in Dallas last week. Take St Louis. - Courtesy of Ted Sevransky