Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tenn State Prediction & Odds: October 6th 2011
Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tenn State
Prediction: Over 53.5 -110 odds (October 6th 2011)
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While this game isn’t even on the radar compared to the Cal/Oregon game, I believe there is money to be made on the total. Middle Tennessee St brings a high-powered offensive attack that is averaging 29.5 ppg. The Blue Raiders are averaging 160.3 ypg on the ground and another 305.0 ypg through the air. They face a Western Kentucky defense that has given up 40 points to Navy and 44 to Indiana State. Middle Tennessee should have no problem scoring at least 30 points in this game.
What makes the over such a strong play tonight is how bad the Blue Raiders are on the defensive side of the ball. Middle Tennessee is giving up 219.8 ypg on the ground and another 252.8 ypg in the passing game. When you look at Western Kentucky’s offense that scores just 13.7 ppg, you likely think the under is strong play. However, we are taking about a Blue Raider defense that allowed Memphis to step on their field and score 31 points! Memphis had scored just 44 points in their previous 4 games combined. The Tigers finished that game with 395 yards of total offense, and even with those numbers they are still averaging just 297 total yards a game.
Since 1992 the OVER is 24-6 in games in which the Blue Raiders score at least 28 points. The average score in those games reached a total of 65.9 points. BET THE OVER! -Steve Janus